Des poids lourds de la majorité ont fait part de leur mécontentement. Le président UMP du Sénat, Gérard Larcher, a demandé de "faire attention" et de "garder raison" sur ces questions, tandis que l'ex-Premier ministre Jean-Pierre Raffarin s'est offusqué d'une "dérive droitière" de l'UMP. Les sénateurs de l'Union centriste (UC) sont allés dans le même sens. "Nous adhérons totalement au texte d'origine de la Loppsi, mais nous sommes opposés à une surenchère dans les sanctions qui se réduit à un effet d'annonce et qui n'est d'aucune efficacité sur le terrain", a expliqué François Zocchetto, principal orateur de l'UC sur ce texte.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
"Dérive droitière de l'UMP"
Who said that? A Socialist? No: Jean-Pierre Raffarin. And the Senate administered a rebuke to Sarkozyan securitism:
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Now What?
Yesterday's protests against retirement reform were large enough, it seems. Sarkozy en prend acte, says the Élysée, but will stay the course on pushing the legal age up to 62. But François Chérèque, appearing on France2 last night, exhibited the confidence of a gambler who believes he has a good betting hand. Meanwhile, a group of academics, union leaders, etc., is calling for a new approach. Of course many of these same voices have been calling for a new approach for a long time, and their voices have gone unheard.
In watching man-in-the-street interviews on TV last night, I had the impression that all the rhetoric surrounding the legal age had produced a distorted image in the minds of many of the demonstrators, who seemed to believe that they had to paint a rather desperate picture of the physical condition of the typical middle-aged Frenchman in order to "stop Sarkozy." There was a sort of surenchère at work: "In my job, you're worn out at 55." "A cashier on her feet 8 hours a day is washed up at 50." "Movers are afflicted with permanent back injuries by the time they turn 45." Etc. One can't help but notice a certain gap between this sort of rhetoric and the rather bland and unspecific call for a more flexible approach to retirement in the manifesto linked to above. As in other matters touching the economy, a basic effort of education seems in order. People need to have a better grasp of the life cycle of work, the handling of these issues in other countries, and the kinds of work that older workers are and are not capable of doing. Because surely these vociferous protesters are overplaying their hands when they suggest that not only should the legal not be raised to 62, but 60 is already too high.
In watching man-in-the-street interviews on TV last night, I had the impression that all the rhetoric surrounding the legal age had produced a distorted image in the minds of many of the demonstrators, who seemed to believe that they had to paint a rather desperate picture of the physical condition of the typical middle-aged Frenchman in order to "stop Sarkozy." There was a sort of surenchère at work: "In my job, you're worn out at 55." "A cashier on her feet 8 hours a day is washed up at 50." "Movers are afflicted with permanent back injuries by the time they turn 45." Etc. One can't help but notice a certain gap between this sort of rhetoric and the rather bland and unspecific call for a more flexible approach to retirement in the manifesto linked to above. As in other matters touching the economy, a basic effort of education seems in order. People need to have a better grasp of the life cycle of work, the handling of these issues in other countries, and the kinds of work that older workers are and are not capable of doing. Because surely these vociferous protesters are overplaying their hands when they suggest that not only should the legal not be raised to 62, but 60 is already too high.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
European Stress Tests Minimized Risks
This is not really news, but now it's quasi-official--the WSJ has spoken--and spreads are affected (h/t Calculated Risk):
LONDON—Europe's recent "stress tests" of the strength of major banks understated some lenders' holdings of potentially risky government debt, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.From Calculated Risk:
After the WSJ story last night on the European stress tests, here is an update on a few European bond spreads:
The 10-year Ireland-to-Germany bond spread has risen to 376 bps. This spread is larger than during the financial crisis in May when the spread peaked at 306 bps.
The 10-year Greece-to-Germany bond spread is now 946 bps, just below the peak level of 963 bps in May.
The 10-year Portugal-to-Germany bond spread is now 351 bps, just above the peak in May of 349 bps.
Day of Protest
Today is the long-awaited day of strikes and protests against retirement reform. So how's it going? Let's have some eyewitness reports, so we can add to the "police estimates" and "organizers' estimates" of participation our own French Politics estimates. I've often wondered whether the police derive their estimates by taking the organizers' estimates and dividing by five, or vice versa. So, given the invariably disappointing and easily inflatable/deflatable elasticity of the quantitative, let's aim for some qualitative evaluations. Do the people you talk to believe that the government has fixed its policy once and for all, or is there some flexibility? What do they think ought to be done? Do they believe reform is necessary? How do they define pénibilité, and how should it be taken into account? Would they favor increased contributions (for all? for some?) over an increase in the retirement age? Etc. etc. The floor is open.
Friday, September 3, 2010
France Buys US Drones and Missiles
From Judah Grunstein:
A few more eyebrow-raisers in terms of France's defense purchases: The head of France's procurement agency traveled to Washington over the summer to discuss the purchase of Reaper UAV drones, and the French military is anxiously awaiting delivery of a batch of already purchased Javelin missiles for use in Afghanistan.
Quiggin Compares EU and US
An interesting, if rough, comparison between the EU and the US is offered by John Quiggin. The whole post is worth reading, but here is the bottom line:
Within the inevitable margin of error, we can reaffirm the conclusion from the earlier post that there is no significant difference between the US and the eurozone leaders on output per hour worked or on employment population ratios. The big differences between the two are
(a) Employed Americans work longer hours (offset by the fact that Europeans do more household work)
(b) In both the EU and US, ordinary income earners receive about half of total market income as private disposable income. In the US, however, a much larger proportion of the other half goes to those in the top 1 per cent, while in the EU it is mostly tax revenue.
On the Roma
Eolas has an excellent, truly excellent, post on the Roma (h/t Louis). In particular, note this passage:
Une question se pose, et je ne tiens pas à l’éluder : celle des Roms et de la délinquance. Le lien est certain, les chiffres ne mentent pas. Partout en Europe, les Roms sont bien plus victimes de la délinquance que les autres populations. Destructions de biens, agressions racistes, sur lesquelles les autorités ferment bien volontiers les yeux, d’autant plus que les Roms, on se demande pourquoi, ont développé à leur encontre une certaine méfiance, quand ce ne sont pas des pogroms. Sans compter les crimes contre l’humanité subis par ce peuple, que ce soit le génocide nazi ou la réduction en esclavage en Valachie et en Moldavie —oui, des esclaves en Europe— jusqu’à la seconde moitié du XIXe siècle.
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