Crony Capitalists in Musical Chairs

It's almost as French as going gaga over un feuilleton américain chez les riches, a Dallas or a Dynasty. The plot twists are dizzying. You see, Henri Proglio, National Order of Merit, Legion, of Honor, and head of EDF, used to be head of Veolia, the water and waste management conglomerate. He was also, shall we say, close to Rachida Dati, the glamorous ex-justice minister. She and Henri accompanied the president and the then first lady to their first, not-so-idyllic vacation in New Hampshire, back when Nicolas was still Sarkozy l'Américain, yearning for nothing more than a hot dog and a cold swim with the Bushes.

But so much has changed since then. Rachida had a baby, by whom no one knows, and in the end fell out with Nicolas, perhaps because she and the new Mme Sarkozy didn't get on. Henri managed to get his nemesis Anne Lauvergeon ousted as head of Areva after himself taking over at EDF. Meanwhile, Jean-Louis Borloo, who was to have replaced François Fillon as prime minister, got shafted when the UMP rebelled and forced Sarko to stick with the stolid but predictable Fillon. Then, in a fit of pique, Borloo went about Paris giving interviews, holding meetings, and pretending to organize a political party that would have been his vehicle to mount a challenge to Sarkozy.

Got all that? It's an overstuffed plot, I know, but it's so hard to keep the drama alive over five years of daily soap opera that the plots inevitably seem a bit cheesy. Then, however, in the penultimate show leading up to the fifth-season finale of Dynastie-sur-Seine, Borloo abruptly canceled any plans he had to become president, and now it seems he may instead be parachuted in as top man at Veolia, Proglio's old firm, where apparently Henri maintains close ties to certain henchmen and is in the process of orchestrating a coup to topple his own handpicked successor.

Whew, what a surprise! Any connection between Borloo's dropping out of the presidential race and the sudden buzz about his taking over Veolia? It would be crass to suggest such a thing. Meanwhile, what about Henri's ex, Rachida? Why, she's bucking the party stalwarts for a place in Paris that has been reserved for Fillon, Borloo's vanquisher, as a golden parachute when he at last gives up the reins of France, Inc., in May, after the Chairman of the Board is either sacked or decides to bring in a new CEO. Every soap opera needs a woman scorned and capable of filling the role of vindictive villainess, and Mme Dati appears to relish the part.

It would make for a good TV show--better TV than government, I suspect.

Has the HADOPI Law Been Effective?

Yes, according to the Times.

Sarkopopu

Nicolas Sarkozy is going all-in on presenting himself as a reborn populist rather than le président du Fouquet's. And why not? It's his only chance. But as the contradictions mount, it should become easier for Hollande to cut him to ribbons in debate. For instance:

Nicolas Sarkozy a ouvert la voie à une dose de proportionnelle aux élections législatives, revendication de longue date des "petits" partis : "Je suis convaincu qu'un mode de scrutin doit d'abord avoir pour objectif de dégager une majortié capable de gouverner. Je suis attaché au mode de scrutin uninominal à deux tours. Mais réfléchissons ensemble.

Une majorité capable de gouverner? Really? For that he needs to bring in the FN, the Boutins, the Borloos, the Morins? He has had five years to govern with a reasonably cohesive, disciplined, and ideologically unified single-party majority à sa botte. Diversifying will not make governing any easier. Clearly, the pitch here is to pick up a few votes around the edges. It's not likely to have much effect.

Rappelant son slogan de campagne en 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy a affirmé que"travailler davantage, c'est la seule façon de préserver notre niveau de vie, notre pouvoir d'achat, et de sortir par le haut de cette crise qui traîne tant d'autres pays vers le bas".

The problem with this sentence is that it all too irresistibly recalls--indeed, is meant to recall--the famous traviller plus pour gagner plus of 2007. The transposition from lusty promises of gain to whimpering defenses of tenuous production can only remind voters of the unkept promises.

"Cette campagne doit être une campagne de vérité. Où est la vérité quand on explique en même temps qu'on veut punir les voyous et abroger la loi sur la récidive ? Où est la vérité quand on fait semblant d'être Thatcher à Londres et Mitterrand à Paris ?, s'est-il interrogé, en référence aux propos de François Hollande au Guardian. Ce n'est pas comme ça que l'on dirige un pays qui est la cinquième puissance mondiale !"

Presumably the intention here is to portray the president as Ulysses navigating the narrow passage between the Scylla and Charybdis of neoliberalism and socialism. But Sarkozy has hardly been a model of ideological consistency, and voters might prefer a course between Mitterrand and Thatcher to one between Le Pen and Buisson.

Whatever one can say about Sarkozy (or is it Guaino speaking through his mouthpiece?), he always seemed to have a fairly good ear for the populist melodies of the moment. This speech just seems off to me.

 

Allègre Supports Sarkozy

Claude Allègre, never one to go with the flow, will support Sarkozy. If the candidate had been DSK, he says, he would have gone with the left, but Hollande, in his opinion, is not up to the job:

Mais pourquoi pas Hollande?Il est un politicien, très intelligent et très sympathique, d’ailleurs j’ai prévenu Sarkozy que les débats contre lui seraient durs. Mais s’il est élu, on aura Chirac II au pouvoir! Chirac a cédé à tout, Hollande, c’est la même chose. Il fait des compromis tout le temps! Je ne le vois pas du tout dans le rôle. Si Dominique Strauss-Kahn avait été candidat, je l’aurais en revanche soutenu.

Of course this estimate of Hollande's character may be as wrong as Allègre's judgment of France's economic situation and Sarkozy's relation to Merkel:

Mais mon choix est guidé par une seule chose essentielle : je considère qu’en Europe nous sommes dans une crise très profonde. Nous ne sommes pas loin de la Grèce ou de l’Italie. Or je considère que les parts de réussite de Nicolas Sarkozy, qu’on l’aime ou qu’on ne l’aime pas, résident justement dans sa politique extérieure. Il a une énergie formidable. Tous les Allemands savent bien qu’au fond, c’est lui qui tire Angela Merkel, qui la pousse à agir. 

Bizarre judgments. But perhaps Allègre is angling for un ministère d'ouverture, as he was in 2007, when he was again advertising his sympathy for Sarkozy.

Le Pen Rehabilitates Brasillach

Jean-Marie Le Pen seems unwilling--and not for the first time--to let his daughter try to cleanse the Front National of its fascist odor:

En tout cas, le vieux leader de 83 ans se dit persuadé que cette sortie n'embarrassera pas sa fille, Marine Le Pen. "Nous acceptons bien la Révolution française et Robespierre dans notre passé. Je ne vois pas pourquoi nous accepterions Robespierre et pas Brasillach !"

Brasillach--of whom de Gaulle, when asked what ought to be done with him at the end of the war, said "Douze balles dans la peau!" --is not a "poet" chosen at random, you can be sure. Le Pen, past master in the art of provocation, knew exactly what he was doing. Chapeau!

PS Will Reject the European Stability Mechanism

The political pushback against the Merkel-Sarkozy-IMF-ECB plan to save the euro has begun. The PS will either abstain or vote against the European Stability Mechanism, because it is linked to the compulsory budget balance provision known as "the golden rule." And apparently the PS was prodded to take this action by criticism from its left in the person of J.-L. Mélenchon.

With doubts about the ESM already multiplying rapidly in Germany, this new blow may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Will Sarko Block Marine?

Arun Kapil thinks that Sarkozy is desperate enough to risk attempting to prevent Marine Le Pen from obtaining her 500 parrainages. I think Arun might be right, but I hope he isn't: the potential for a real eruption of anger is not to be underestimated.

The Campaigns Hit the Web

La Nouvelle Edition du 16/02 - La campagne 2.0

France Clings to Growth

One could make a case for Nicolas Sarkozy's management of the French economy over the past five years. Indeed, I will make such a case in a series of talks on the elections that I have to give over the next couple of months. An additional data point arrived yesterday: France clings to (very modest) growth even as most of her European partners, including Germany, have slipped into recession.

Of course the numbers game is in many ways a mug's game. +0.2 is not very different from -0.2. France's current account remains in the red, and loss of competitiveness remains a problem, as does the painful bite of austerity. There has been no consistent vision behind Sarkozy's management since the vision he brought into office--one of very mild neoliberal reforms--was smashed by the crisis. But the French economy retains a certain dogged solidity. To be sure, its banks are an Achilles' heel, although BNP yesterday announced record profits of 6 billion €. For this the ECB is to be thanked. Banks are in the enviable position of being able to obtain funds for virtually nothing and then to lend them out again at a respectable premium. To the charge that they are lending only to sovereigns enjoying an implicit guarantee against default, BNP replies that its loan book to the private sector has expanded by 5.1% over the year.

So things may be improving on the banking side, as BNP plows 3/4 of its profits back into equity to shore up its position. Perhaps this news will comfort Moody's, which has been threatening, after S&P, to downgrade France. The possibility of a bank failure remains the French government's largest implicit contingent liability. It would have to step in if a big bank went down. So taxpayers must take a certain comfort in the big bank's windfall, even though they might smile more broadly if they had been allowed to share more fully in the boon.

I expect that Sarkozy will make a great deal of this modest success in his campaign, while Hollande, who isn't likely to change course very much if he wins, will accentuate the negative. It will be more important, however, to listen for proposals from either man likely to shift France's long-term outlook. The recent fluctuations are mere noise. And the German model, which Sarkozy has temporarily swallowed hook, line, and sinker, will soon begin to crumble, as German demographics begin to weigh, German workers grow restive under wage restraints, and competition in German export markets increases. Will France prove to be the successful rival, or will new competitors emerge?

Cécilia's With Him

As you may have heard, Nicolas Sarkozy will indeed be a candidate to succeed himself. And throughout France and Navarre a great sigh could be heard ... whether of relief or exasperation no one could say. Among the reactions we have this:

Mr. Sarkozy also introduced a new Twitter account on Wednesday, clearly designed for the campaign (@NicolasSarkozy), and got a good-luck message from his ex-wife, Cécilia Attias, who was a vital part of his successful 2007 presidential campaign. On Thursday, he will visit a cheese factory in the French Alps near Annecy.

I'm sure it's comforting to the president to know that his ex-wife, who didn't vote for him in 2007, is nevertheless behind him now. Perhaps he will invite her to the victory party, if there is one, at Fouquet's. Some might see it as a mistake to repeat this first error of the first term, but if there is a second term, one has to assume that Sarkozy will be more décomplexé than ever, since he will have beaten all the odds and demonstrated that the French are indeed, as the General opined in a moment of pique, des veaux. Meanwhile, there are cheese factories to be visited. To the victor belong the spoils, but first there are muddy battlefields to be slogged through.