Five years is a long time in politics. If DSK leaves France for the US to take up the reins of the IMF, he may well be thinking of returning for a presidential run in 2012. The
aller-retour route to power has been tested by Romano Prodi among others (see
Libé's comment on international organizations as springboards to domestic power
here).
Will the Socialist Party accept him as its leader after such a lengthy abandonment? Will the Socialist Party still exist? The question is not idle. Five years ago, in 2002, the Front National polled more votes in the first round of the presidentials than the PS. Yesterday, the same FN
appealed to its supporters to donate money to rescue it from its financial plight.
Like the PCF, it is also contemplating selling off or subletting some of its real estate, as well as laying off party staff. A political party that fails badly can collapse quickly.
And the PS, despite its relative success in the legislative elections, may be collapsing quickly. Jack Lang
resigned from the leadership today after being scolded like a child yesterday by Hollande's right-hand man, Stéphane Le Foll. Ségolène Royal, feeling no great urgency even as Sarko occupies the high ground at all points of the compass, plans to take the entire summer to reflect on the "strengths and weaknesses" of her campaign before gathering strength "for the next victory"(!?) An
alarmed cohort of quadragénaires,
formerly followers of one or another of the
éléphants, is trying to find its bearings in a landscape no longer hospitable to large gray quadrupeds.
There is much to think about here for students of both political theory and French political history. Sarkozy, like an expert lumberjack, has deftly picked apart two logjams that had been damming the currents of political change. He has demolished the blockage on the extreme right and cut the middle-of-the-road socialists loose from the anti-liberal left. The middle of the channel is moving swiftly (as Bayrou stands on the riverbank, wondering what happened). France today looks quite different from France sixty days ago.