Fillon's Fortunes

Is the UMP tiring of Sarko? Might François Fillon emerge from the shadows as a possible replacement? These are the speculative questions taken up by François Fressoz in this Le Monde piece. Political talk of this sort is like wisps of cloud in the distance on a summer afternoon. They may develop into storms, but most likely they will dissipate. It's hard for a foreign observer to know what stock to place in Fressoz's unsourced rumors. There is always grumbling in any political party, and Sarkozy has had a somewhat bad patch recently. But it's also hard to assess Fillon's substance as an independent leader, since he has so willingly placed himself in Sarkozy's shadow and has remained so discreet about their inevitable conflicts. One can respect his discretion, but the questions about what he would do differently remain.