Saturday, February 26, 2011

Roy's Analysis

In 2005, Olivier Roy prepared an analysis of political trends in the Islamic world for the government's Centre d'analyse et de prévision. He noted that it no longer made sense to view authoritarian regimes as a bulwark against Islamic radicalism:

« Le concept d'Etat islamique n'est plus à l'ordre du jour », ajoutait Olivier Roy, « sur le long terme, c'est la voie turque qui se profile. » Encore plus accablant au regard du fiasco de la diplomatie française, le paragraphe sur les Etats-Unis :
« Bien des intellectuels nationalistes prennent au Maghreb le chemin du dialogue avec les ambassades américaines. »
La diplomatie française, elle, avait pour consigne de ne pas fréquenter l'opposition. Cette note donne raison aux diplomates anonymes du « groupe Marly » qui s'exprimaient cette semaine dans Le Monde.
Elle accable encore un peu plus Michèle Alliot-Marie, qui semblait ignorer début février l'existence, au sein du ministère dont elle avait la charge, du CAP (créé en 1973), déclarant à Munich, en marge d'une conférence stratégique :
« Nous avons besoin d'une vraie capacité d'analyse et d'expertise stratégique au ministère des Affaires étrangères, ce qui n'existait pas. »

4 comments:

Mark said...

Consider Alliot-Marie well and truly hoist by her own petard! (Who said la langue de Shakespeare wasn't also in part la langue de Molière?)

It would be very nice if Sarko would replace himself while he's at it; the photos of him beatifically palling about with Mubarak and Gaddafi are stomach-turning. Firing Michèle for her minor infringement (compared to his connérie, which is at the gravest level -thousands of lives have been lost) does seem utterly hypocritical and is two crises behind the curve. So it won't even catch his nosedive in the poles which is the ostensible intention behind it. The longer he lets his old pal Muammar go on butchering the people of Libya, the lower he's going to go. Wake up and smell the coffee Sarko; you're only rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The Libyean crisis points at you and If the press have any nous they won't give the Gaddafi nexus a free pass. "Qu'ils s'en aillent tous !" (I couldn't resist it...)

Mark said...

This is the most blood curdling statement from a leader I have heard:

Colonel Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam: "The people have no future unless they agree together on a new programme" (from the BBC site)

The Gaddafis intend to murder them all?

Mark said...

So the facts appear to be that France is in this with every other member of the EU, selling 30 million Euros of armaments to Libya in 2009. That more than the UK (25 million) and less that either Germany (53 million) or Italy (111 million), which sold the most. Sarko seems to have been involved in this going back to 2004, when the arms embargo was lifted. For what purpose? So we (the west) could sell Gaddafi arms to keep him onboard? Let's hope there is more examination of the machinations behind all this. For more detail: http://www.rue89.com/2011/02/25/vente-darmes-a-la-libye-cest-avant-quil-faut-sindigner-192255

FrédéricLN said...

BTW, it seems that the CAP released quite decent work.