Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Obstacles for the PS
Laurent Bouvet warns that the PS faces four obstacles to winning the presidential election, despite its modest success in the cantonals and other recent elections. First, the high abstention rate indicates that although Sarkozy has been rejected, voters still do not adhere to the PS program. Second, Europe Ecology-Greens competes for the same demographic (urban, educated, mid- to upper-status professions) and may, as the Greens in Germany did, attract new voters in the wake of the nuclear disaster in Japan. Third, the Front de Gauche has made significant progress under Mélenchon, and this could eat into the PS first-round vote (but will not matter if the PS candidate makes it to the second round, because these votes will not go to either Sarkozy or Le Pen). And fourth, if Marine Le Pen survives to the second round, she will claim some of the UMP's voters, who no longer refuse to cross the line to vote for the FN.