Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Hollande Has Large Lead in Poll

With DSK out, François Hollande has a large lead in a Harris Interactive poll: 49% of Socialist sympathizers and 37% of left sympathizers favor him to win the Socialist primary. Other contenders:

François Hollande arrive loin devant tous les autres candidats, déclarés ou non, à la primaire socialiste : Martine Aubry obtient respectivement 23 % et 22 % des voix, Ségolène Royal 10 % et 14 %, Arnaud Montebourg 1 % et 4 %, et Manuel Valls 3 % et 2 %. 14 % des sympathisants socialistes et 21 % des sympathisants de gauche indiquent souhaiter qu'aucune de ces personnalités ne soit désignée à l'issue de la primaire socialiste, dans l'hypothèse où DSK ne serait pas candidat.
I had expected Hollande to be in the lead--he has been the most active campaigner--but he has opened up a more impressive gap than I had imagined. Aubry's next moves will be interesting. If she decides to stay out of the race, it may signal that she wants to put a quick end to the fight by handing victory to Hollande. But the temptation may now be strong for a Fabius or even a Lang to tempt fate. Perhaps even Hamon, who might make a bid for support of the party's left wing and beyond.

Ségo's weakness is also rather surprising. I would have guessed that she had stronger inside support. And clearly the younger generation has not succeeded in making much of an impression, despite assiduous efforts to court the media. Both Montebourg and Valls are frequently before the cameras, but no one is noticing.

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