For a perfectly lucid analysis of why the case against DSK is unlikely to proceed if the NY Times report of new evidence is true, see here.
The question now becomes what will become of DSK's political career if he walks. And I will answer this to the best of my ability this morning on CNBC TV between the hours of 11 and 12 this morning. Six weeks ago, I confidently predicted that DSK's life in politics was over even if he was eventually acquitted. I'm no longer so sure of that. To be sure, he will not have been exonerated if the charges are dismissed, but the case will have imploded so quickly and dramatically that there is still time for him to get back into the Socialist primary. Of course a great deal of derogatory information about his sexual past, his recklessness (and even if it turns out that he paid for sex with the hotel maid, no one can deny that his behavior was reckless), and his great wealth is now a matter of lurid public record. Against all this, however, he can now present himself as a victim (of overzealous American justice, of a devious woman, or even of a possible conspiracy--where did the $100K the woman allegedly deposited in various bank accounts come from: it might have been a drug dealer boyfriend, but it might also have been some other source). Sarkozy is so unpopular, and the current field of potential rivals is so lackluster, that a revivified DSK may once again look like a savior. And yet, and yet ... it is hard to imagine a president of France trailing these casseroles behind him. A lot to ponder. Suggestions welcome.