Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Primary Polling

Aubry's ahead by 2; no, Hollande by 6. Etc. Actually, nobody knows who's ahead, because the polling organizations don't know how to distinguish those likely to vote in the Socialist primary from those who just like to vent to pollsters. So the results vary wildly. Frankly, I don't much care, especially since the polls make no effort to distinguish what issues, if any, might differentiate one candidate from another in the minds of the voters. What would you say if asked to distinguish Hollande from Aubry, for example? And as a reader of this blog, you're following the race much more closely than most of the French electorate. Nevertheless, Romain Pigenel explains--rather idealistically--why you should vote.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Aubry vs Hollande mainly comes down to how to one feels about them personally. These two have been around for a while now and most politically aware people have decided opinions about them. Some primary voters will also vote strategically, for the candidate they think will be stronger against Sarkozy. Insofar as political views play a role, voters more inclined to the left will likely go for Aubry, whereas those inclining toward the center (and an alliance with MoDem) will vote Hollande.
Arun

brent said...

I'm glad the pollsters don't get it either, because I can't for the life of me figure out who will vote in this primary. I do wonder if it will attract zealous supporters of Montebourg and Valls in disproportionate numbers, voting to position their champions for 2017 ....

bernard said...

Aubry is a much more complex mix than "this inclined to the left" categorisation, I think.

We should start by mentioning her origins, social catholicism and a kind of "bonne soeur" concern for the more vulnerable elements of French society. That is not especially left but is indeed part of a humanist tradition that inclines people towards the progressive camp. It certainly is far from the thrid republic anti-clericalism.

We should continue with her early professional formative years. She spent a long time at the ministry of labour and became extremely knowledgable of social and labour conditions, including exploitation of labour laws. That pushes her towards some forms of authoritarian behaviour and radicalism in the sense that she is under no illusion of the desire of business organisations to genuinely participate in social negotiations. She knows from personal experience that they only do so under duress, really, in France.

So I would characterise Aubry as an almost middle-of-the-road social catholic with radical impulses at times. Funnily enough, that makes her look like a lot of French, really.

Kirk said...

How is this about issues? Whoever wins has to support the Socialist platform; they have no leeway. It's all about personality.