Monday, August 29, 2011

Will Ségo Be the Spoiler?

The media love a duel, so the Hollande-Aubry contest, with the former ahead by a nose--no a head, no a neck, no a length and a half--has filled the papers, but some rumblings out of La Rochelle suggest that Ségolène Royal may be making a run from behind:

On peut entendre cette phrase aussi bien dans la bouche de proches de Benoît Hamon que dans celle du strausskahnien Jean-Marie Le Guen:«Ségolène sera au deuxième tour, contre Aubry ou Hollande.» D'autres, comme le proche d'Aubry, François Lamy, qui voit «évidemment un score à deux chiffres», ne croient pas à l'aura retrouvée de la candidate à la présidentielle de 2007, jugeant son isolement depuis comme trop handicapant.
An SR victory would upset many applecarts. It would be interesting, if only to see whether the PS éléphants could this time overcome their collective revulsion to, you know, actually support their candidate. But who counts the primary votes? Because I recall that in the party leadership contest, the vote-counting was not quite kosher--and I'm not talking about hanging-chad problems. More like Richard J. Daley-style box-stuffing and ballot-stealing.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The two statements above match what I gathered in La Rochelle: there's a definite "pro-Royal surge" - once again those who'd counted her out were wrong - and the Aubry camp don't have much consideration for Royal.

Hollande's supporters remain extremely confident.

Aubry played the "summer school" wrong: she used it like a boxing ring and displeased many people (her interruption of Hollande or her 'room-stuffing' with bouncers keeping non-Aubry supporters out of the best seats angered quite a few people). The little put-downs were conterproductive for the setting. In addition, the "Guérini" affair is hanging around her neck and her excuse for Europe1 was "he doesn't support me" - and since we all thought we'd read he did, we googled it, and guess what? He does.

Make me eat crow 6 weeks from now but I'm willing to bet we'll see a Royal/Hollande match come October - something that should be really interesting ;)

Regarding the voting process: there were numerous workshops to train the "présidents des bureaux"; watch C+ next Sunday for the story.
Essentially, since all involved in the primary process knew there'd been Daley-scale "problems" in 2008, they took every precaution to avoid being sitting ducks for UMP critics: there'll be sworn "assesseurs" at each station, encrypted phones and electronic pens, multiple verifications, and even independent lawyers in each fédé. In addition, each candidate's representative will have a special phone number to report suspicious activity.
Myos
(ps: my "on the fly" report is one page back, under the post about "polls"b- I'll try and do the same from Marseilles).

Anonymous said...

A handful of articles:
- http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/ps-a-la-rochelle-hollande-et-royal-marquent-des-points_1024627.html
- http://davidm.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/08/28/ps-la-rochelle-lautre-verite-mediatique/
- http://www.rue89.com/2011/08/28/roman-photo-une-heure-avec-harlem-desir-chef-du-ps-en-cdd-219590
- http://partisocialiste.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/08/29/la-primaire-chez-les-libraires/
- http://www.marianne2.fr/La-Rochelle-2011-une-universite-d-evitement_a209773.html