A bit early for this, but LH2 has Sarko running neck and neck with Hollande, 29 to 30. I expected a closing of the gap, but not this soon. Marine Le Pen is still the spoiler with 15, but both Mélenchon and Bayrou are at 7 and Joly at 6.
But Hollande would still win handily in the 2nd round, with 58%. My prediction for next May: Hollande, 53-47. You heard it here first.