An American observer comments on French politics.
No breaking news here, if I may.However, I disagree with Grunberg: I think FN voters will mostly vote for Sarkozy if he makes it to the second round. Their right wing political alignment seems stronger to me than their will of change. We'll see...
Given that, in the end, there's no way Hollande -like John Kerry or Raymond Poulidor- can win , Sarko won't lose. If he were paired against Bayrou in the second round perhaps, but that's an extremely unlikely scenario. Of course Sarko is detested and despised so its going to be an interesting second quinquennat.
Research and polling has shown that MLP is pulling a substantial portion of her vote from assorted far leftists who formerly voted for Communists, Trotsyites, NPA, and assorted other anti-capitalist, anti-globalist groups. There is nothing conservative or "right wing" about the FN. It is National Socialism aka Nazism under a new guise. It has been flirting with fascism, which is more left than right.@Anonymous, Sarko could lose, but from the pandering we have seen from Hollande, and his really awful political skills and no strategy, it is still 50-50 in my opinion, despite what the polls are saying.
I agree that the big question mark, apart from where are center voters going to cast their ballot, is the direction where FN voters will head on the second turn. I think that, in a scenario where Sarkozy would be set against someone else than MLP, a significant part of those voters will not vote at all in the second turn. Because noone on the political scene, even Sarkozy, proposes the same mix, incoherent and flawed but potent, of conservativism, radicalism, and economic nerd rage. A part will vote for Sarkozy because of conservative values, but I would not depend on it. As to Hollande, to this observer he is really not giving a good show at the moment. The circumstances are difficult, both ideologically and politically. What is a "socialist" program today, and can you win elections with it? But Hollande seems to flay about aimlessly both in terms of program and in his domination over the political force that gave him its trust. Let's hope Christmas will bring him insigts.
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