Thursday, March 22, 2012
Yet another poll, this one from BVA: Hollande leads Sarkozy by 1.5% even though Mélenchon is given 14% in this one!! The difference between this and the CSA poll cited earlier is that Bayrou seems to be declining. So does this mean that Hollande's "blancmange" campaign (as I called it earlier) may be reassuring Bayrou voters that it's safe to cross over to the left? If so, then Hollande's calculations are correct and my criticisms are misplaced. It's not out of the question. But, as I say, let's not overinterpret any single poll. There are still 5 weeks to go.