Thursday, March 29, 2012

CSA: Sarkozy +4

A CSA poll conducted on March 26-27 gives Sarkozy a 4-point advantage in the first round but still has him losing to Hollande 53-47 in the second. This is the first clear sign of a post-Toulouse bump for Sarkozy, but 53-47 is still a considerable deficit to overcome. Meanwhile, CSA has Bayrou and Mélenchon equal at 12.5 and Marine Le Pen back on top of the second tier with 15.


Merlin said...

53-47 on second round(1) does not mean anything at this stage, as any decent pollster will tell you and (2) is much better than 60-40.

I think that you should brace yourself for a Sarkozy's victory: 51-49.

As soon as "l'espoir change de camp, le combat change d'ame" and the big Mo will come into play.

Hollande may not be able to play it safe and cool for very long, now, and then the big intellectual and policy vacuum will be apparent to everybody.

Anonymous said...

There is no post-Toulouse bump for Sarko here, as his score is unchanged from CSA's poll of a week ago. According to CSA's own analysis Hollande's two point drop can be explained by some of his voters moving to Joly and the extrême gauche candidates.


Anonymous said...

I was going to say, if you compare poll to poll, Sarko does not move. Hollande goes down though. He'd better find something soon, and make it clear -his latest proposal (automatic admission of the top 5% from any lycée to the prépa system) didn't even register on most radars.

Mitch Guthman said...

There doesn’t seem to have been much of a bump as reflected in the polls. I think Arun is right that most of the drift from Hollande is towards other leftist candidates, most especially towards Mélenchon. My assumption is that most, probably all, of these voters will come home to the PS in the second round (unless Hollande does something stupid like attacking Mélenchon)

Nevertheless, I think Sarkozy has done well out of this terrible situation in Toulouse even if it isn’t reflected in the polls. He didn’t overreact either during or in the aftermath. For example, in his decision to exclude certain radical preachers, Sarkozy focused on many of the same points that were made by Fethi Benslama in the brief commentary that Arun posted.

Sarkozy’s handling of Merah’s burial----he’s French, just put him in the ground and don’t make a production of it---struck me as correct and striking all the right notes for a president.

Justin said...

Also agree with Arun - when you look at the aggregator of polls on Le Monde, the 3 relevant polls (ie taken after March 21) are inconclusive at best.

(i) IPSOS: shows no effect.
(ii) CSA: Sarko stagnates after having overtaken Hollande before March 21.
(iii) HARRIS: Sarko increases by 1 point.

I think the conventional wisdom is soon gonna be that Toulouse is what allowed Sarko to overtake Hollande, and it will be inaccurate. Same as Obama overtaking McCain because of the financial crisis: this one is thrown at me so regularly that I keep a chart of the 2008 polls to remind people that what happened was a McCain "Palin bump" the first 2-3 weeks of September rather than an Obama "Lehman bump".