An American observer comments on French politics.
But is it really "bad news for Sarkozy"? Whereas polls suggest MLP no longer threatens to replace NS in the second round, the real question is, by what route can Sarko gather the greatest number of her supporters in that round? I would have thought that keeping her off the ballot would send a large fraction of her voters home, not to be seen again in either round. But as it is, they will turn out for her, and then, mobilized,aren't they more likely to vote for NS as the lesser evil--and a candidate who has met them more than halfway?
That is certainly Buisson's calculation, Brent. And it must be said that many analysts attribute Jospin's loss in 2002 to his failure to court the extreme left. So Sarkozy is determined to avoid the mistake of assuming that voters well to the far side of the median have no choice but to vote for him in the second round. So you could well be right.
Post a Comment