Who will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the smallN problem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Political Science Weighs In: Sarko Will Lose
Political scientists think they know how to forecast election results from economic and political data. Martial Foucault and Richard Nadeau analyze the French presidential election in this perspective and predict a narrow win for Hollande (caveat emptor, h/t John Sides):