Harris, IFOP, and Ipsos all have new polling results today, but there are no dramatic changes, and the fluctuations look like statistical noise rather than any change in the fundamental situation, which is: virtual dead heat in round 1 followed by a clear Hollande victory in round 2. The Mélenchon "surge" is confirmed, but it's not clear where his strength is coming from. As I put it the other day, he has wiped out the extreme left: Poutou is at 0.5% and Arthaud at 0! Eva Joly is also au ras des pâquerettes. Bayrou continues to poke along, in some polls above Mélenchon, in others below. With Marine Le Pen, those two constitute the second tier of candidates. And there you have it. A roughly 60/40 split in the electorate between the mainstream and those who would prefer something completely different--except that, when push comes to shove, they probably wouldn't want things to change too much.
A few years ago, the historian Perry Anderson ended a brilliant if rather splenetic article about France with the remark, "Ce peuple est encore dangereux." I don't think so. Which is not to say that the next few years may not witness considerable unrest. About which more on another occasion.