Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Sarkozy Wins But Still Loses

A new IFOP poll has Sarkozy barely edging out Hollande in the first round (28.5 to 27) but still losing badly, 54,5 to 45.5 in the second round. Bayrou's voters go heavily to Hollande, and Sarkozy doesn't get enough of Le Pen's votes to make up the difference. One-third of Le Pen's voters dislike him so much that they will abstain in round 2 rather than vote for the left.

Still, this first post-Villepinte poll shows that the president still has some fight left, and this should galvanize the troops. It may also galvanize the opposition, which had been falling into a certain complacency about the outcome. Hollande must now step up his game or risk further slippage.


Anonymous said...

How many people in the poll? What's the margin of error? I bet it's within 3%, hence the numbers don't mean anything yet. I will believe in "slippage" when I see 3 polls that say the same thing. Because right now, nothing has changed between last week and this week, even among those of my relations who'd voted for him in 2007. Some may not know for who to vote, but they're sure it won't be for Sarkozy. And now that Le Pen has her signatures, things aren't going to be as easy as if she didn't.
The only one I can see progress is Mélenchon. I also think that Le Pen is undercounted because she's strong in some specific groups that don't necessarily appear in polls (in particular working classes that lifted themselves out of the working poor and live between town and country.)

Anonymous said...


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