A new IFOP poll has Sarkozy barely edging out Hollande in the first round (28.5 to 27) but still losing badly, 54,5 to 45.5 in the second round. Bayrou's voters go heavily to Hollande, and Sarkozy doesn't get enough of Le Pen's votes to make up the difference. One-third of Le Pen's voters dislike him so much that they will abstain in round 2 rather than vote for the left.
Still, this first post-Villepinte poll shows that the president still has some fight left, and this should galvanize the troops. It may also galvanize the opposition, which had been falling into a certain complacency about the outcome. Hollande must now step up his game or risk further slippage.