Tuesday, March 13, 2012

To Cross or Not To Cross

As one might have predicted, another poll is out, this one from TNS-Sofres, and in this one the famous "crossing of the curves" does not occur. Hollande is still ahead by 4 in the first round. So, you pays your money and you takes your chances, as they say.

I will be on France24 evening news in 10 minutes to discuss all this, but for a very lucid overview, see Arun Kapil.


Robert said...

Arun puts it very nicely. One other side note: Edging out Hollande in the first round would merely put Sarkozy on par with other sitting French presidents -- sous la cinquieme. None of his predecessors who ran for re-election came in second in the opening ballot and I find it very telling that Sarko should have been behind until six weeks before the election. Current first-round polling makes Sarko's numbers look like Giscard's 31 years ago. Just sayin'....

FrédéricLN said...

L'Observatoire des Sondages makes a very good point on the very curious method of the IFOP poll (a method I never met before) http://www.observatoire-des-sondages.org/La-supercherie-de-l-Ifop.html

Disclaimer: I've got friends at IFOP, I consider the pollster as a serious one, and so on. But: what's this mess?

Anonymous said...

The poll may have been "real", the numbers are all within the margin of error.
Another issue is that, clearly, Sarkozy is going off-script - he's done it before in the campaign, skipping parts from his speech that he doesn't like even though they'd be crowd-pleasers, changing other parts to fit his own thoughts.