Tuesday, April 3, 2012

How the Campaign Will Play Out

Here's the way I see it. The great "exogenous shock" that was supposed to shake up the campaign occurred and ... nothing happened. After the killings in Montauban and Toulouse, the speculation was that Sarkozy might receive a boost from newly security-conscious voters, and indeed, the first-round contest did tighten slightly, but this effect was really more the continuation of a steady increase in Sarkozy's share over the previous several weeks. Unfortunately for Sarkozy, the second-round polling has remained stable at about 54-46 in favor of Hollande for several weeks now. Hollande has not been shaken from his tortoise-like crawl to the finish line. Mélenchon seems to be peaking at around 15%. Together, the 3 second-tier candidates claim about 40% of the vote.

So we will go into the first-round with the top-tier candidates at rough equality, each getting somewhere above 25% of the vote, with perhaps a point or two or three advantage for Sarkozy. Then will come the Great Debate between the two rounds. Sarkozy will have to go all-in in this debate, meaning that he will have to try to shake up Hollande in the hope that the Socialist will commit some fatal blunder.

I doubt that he will succeed in this, although Sarkozy is certainly a skilled debater. But the voters they will be competing for will be Bayrou's, since 90% of Mélenchon's will go to Hollande, but only 60% of Le Pen's to Sarkozy. One thing you can say about the centrist electorate: "sizzle" is not what it's looking for in a candidate. Hollande's lack of charisma is not so different from Bayrou's. Of course centrists also like accounts that add up, so you can expect Sarkozy to needle Hollande about the 60,000 teachers he has promised to hire, and you can expect Hollande to dance adroitly around the issue. You can expect some fireworks over the règle d'or and Hollande's pledge to "renegotiate" the treaty. You can expect allegations of "irresponsibility" and reneging on France's sovereign promises.

But in the end, centrists are fed up with Sarkozy, and there is little he can do to diminish the ras-le-bol sentiment. And so Hollande will win, although I think the final margin will be closer to 52-48 than the 54-46 in the current polls.

3 comments:

Didier said...

How about a second-round Melenchon-Le Pen!
(http://www.francesoir.fr/actualite/politique/exclusif-marine-le-pen-moi-au-second-tour-contre-melenchon-c-aurait-de-la-gueule-203419.html)

Don't trust polls!

Anonymous said...

We can see that it is possible for the French Presidential Elections to be influenced by Kosovo. Angela Merkel made known that she wanted French President Nicolas Sarkozy elected as the next French President rather than any of the other Candidates for French President. It could be that Germany really does not care, because the Franco-German alliance is the way for France and Germany to proceed, regardless of who forms the Government. If another Candidate should become French President, then Germany can deceptively have others think that Germany is disappointed, and that there will be no Fourth Reich to menace and exploit the smaller Continental European Countries, but the reality will be different. The other Candidate appears to not be saying much, except the Me Too to the popular Policies of Sarkozy, and only saying the minimum, because he may know that these Videos on Kosovo in the French Language a week before the first round of Voting will tell the French People that Sarkozy has Dishonoured France and the French People.

It will however, affect Sarkozy and his Political Party, even if it does not affect the Franco-German domination of Continental Europe. We all know that there will be a Presidential Election in France soon, and that the French People are Honourable people, and that they value their Honour, because the French People are not Nazis as Sarkozy and Merkel think. There could be certain groups who will put a Video in the French Language of Kosovo on the Internet to prove to the French People that President Sarkozy has Dishonoured France and he has Dishonoured the French People.

These groups may not necessarily be European Governments of the smaller Countries, because many of them could be Puppets of Germany, but they could be ordinary citizens who do not like the menace or exploitation of the Fourth Reich. I basically think that the time to judge the Government is during their time in Office, and not during the Campaign Election. The Politicians know that Most People have short memories, and that they will only concentrate on the smoke and mirrors of what the promises of different Parties and Candidates are. I know that it is extremely difficult for Voters to not be influenced by Election Promises, because History proves that People are as experienced in the ways of deceptive Politicians, as they really should be. Sarkozy said late last year and before the Presidential Elections, that France must be more like Germany.

Anonymous said...

However, now that it is the Election Campaign, and a time to lie and lie big, Sarkozy says that he wants a Europe that protects its citizens, and that he no longer wants this savage competition. The possible group or groups who make this Video in the French Language, and place it on the Internet would want Sarkozy to lose on the first round of Voting on 22 April 2012. They would want this because, they think that they might be able to have Angela Merkel and her Party lose the next German Election, because of using a German Language Video of Kosovo on the Internet during the next German Elections. They may be right, but they should realize that it will not change Germany regardless of who the Government is. This is because German interests define German policy, but they may be satisfied with taking the credit for Angela Merkel and her Party lose the Election, because the German People cannot have blatant Nazis in power, and they need the Opposition Parties who are more subtle, and not stained by the Kosovo affair.

It could be that French President Nicolas Sarkozy, may say that France wants the Kumanovo Agreement scrapped, and Germany may also ask America to do them this favour as a NATO Ally, but will Sarkozy and Merkel mean it after the French Presidential Election, and even the upcoming Serbian Elections. We know that in the past, France did actually leave NATO, because of a disagreement, and we know that France later rejoined NATO, and the French left NATO over a matter concerning Honour. We know that America and the European Union will do a lot to help Tadic and Dacic win the Elections, because they are there Puppets. It could that they may scrap the Kumanovo Agreement to help their Puppets win the Elections, because they know that even as things can be done before the Elections, they can also be undone after the Elections. There are Many People who hope that the French Voters ignore all promises made by all Political Parties during their Election Campaign.

This is because the real truth of the Political Parties is their attitudes and actions between Election Campaigns, and not at the Election Campaign, because Election time that is the time they lie big, and only during Government or Opposition is when they are more honest, as History repeatedly proves. This is because the Wise will assume that they will all be unable to fulfil their Economic Policies, and this Election Theme, is: It Is Time For A Change. The French Voters should know that Sarkozy may dishonour France and they may dishonour the French People, because of their attitudes concerning Serbia’s Province of Kosovo.