Sunday, May 6, 2012

Ministerial Choices

Whom will Hollande choose as prime minister? France2 seemed almost to be pushing Jean-Marc Ayrault, who would be a plausible choice if Hollande wants to emulate Sarkozy and act as his own prime minister. Ayrault is self-effacing, competent, and not ambitious, as far as I know, to become president himself. Friction would be less likely than with Aubry. Other possibilities include Fabius, Moscovici, and Valls, who shared the platform with Ayrault.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ayrault has had the inside track since serious speculation on this began. If it's not him it will be Valls.

Arun

Gregory Brown said...

Recall that the first task of the PM will be to lead the legislative election campaign. To my mind, that suggests it ought not be Ayrault and will more likely be Aubry. Moscovici seems a likely choice for Secretary General of Elysee. To my mind, the most fascinating question is what role Segolene Royale will play in the government.

Anonymous said...

The PM chosen now will be the PM after the legislatives (assuming the gauche wins them). Aubry would be the wrong signal to send centrist voters the PS will need next month. Also, she and Hollande don't get along too well. And she dissed him in the Lille rally to boot. Ayrault has been the leader of the PS delegation in the A.N., is liked by the deputies, and is a longstanding Hollande ally and friend. He's a logical choice.

Arun

Art Goldhammer said...

I agree with Arun.

bernard said...

Not that I know anything, but I would not exclude Fabius. He has the know-how. He led opposition to the european constitutional reform, and may be what we need to make the point to our German friends. He wrote the first year program.

Kirk said...

Ayrault is very much like Fillon; the quiet type, career politician who doesn't make waves. As you say, that choice would probably be one that signals Hollande's taking full control.

Fabius is not the right kind of person; his attitude in the debate with Sarkozy suggests that he is not a good negotiator.

Aubry? No, she is running the party. She hasn't been there long, and changing the head of the party would lead to much infighting among the Socialists.

Anonymous said...

There is not a snowball's chance in hell that it will be Laurent "sang contaminé" Fabius. Why not Jack Lang or Lionel Jospin too while we're at it? The PS would lose the legislatives in a landslide. Soyons sérieux.

Arun

Cincinna said...

Because Hollande is totally unknown on the international stage, he should pick PM with vast experience and common of the issues.

Hollande will make his international debut at the NATO conference in Chicago in a few weeks. He has never even met Obama, nor any other major leaders. He had better assemble a team that does.

This is playing with the big boys, not some amateur, on the job training experience.

TexExile said...

The puzzle for me is this. As noted by Arun and others, Hollande will risk trouble if he names Aubry or any of the Big Beasts of the PS as prime minister, but if he opts for someone like Ayrault, he may find himself in the trap that Sarko prepared for himself and then stepped into. If you are, effectively, your own PM, then you have no lightning rod. Might Valls be the right man? Not an old rival like Aubry but still a serious enough figure in his own right to become, in due course, the scapegoat that Hollande may need to sacrifice somewhere down the line.

Anonymous said...

As per an insider, Ayrault is the top choice, but Valls is the reason the PS managed to run a "modern", efficient campaign and may thus be chosen for the "législatives".
I went to see the local PS party and it seemed strangely subdued. People were happy but they kept repeating "now the hard work begins, it's going to be hard".
Sarkozy was also unknown internationally before he got elected. It doesn't matter: the proof's in the pudding. Either he can, or he can't do it.
Hollande's already invited to Camp David ahead of the Talks.
Myos

FrédéricLN said...

Hollande needs somebody having some reasonable idea about what to do know.

This excludes immediately some of them (er, I won't quote anyone). Maybe Ayrault, Bianco… Sapin at Finances of course, Valls minister of something or spokesperson again, Royal at Affaires sociales.

Find something who speaks English for Foreign Affairs — THAT is the challenge. DSK being out. Pervenche Bérès???