Monday, May 7, 2012

MoDem did not go for Hollande

Dans quels électorats est allé puiser M. Hollande pour construire sa victoire ? Sans surprise, une très forte proportion des électeurs de Jean-Luc Mélenchon (81 %) a voté pour lui. En revanche, le candidat socialiste n'a guère convaincu les partisans de François Bayrou, en dépit du vote personnel du président du MoDem en sa faveur : 29 % ont voté pour lui, certes, mais 41 % ont préféré M. Sarkozy, tandis que 30 % se sont abstenus ou ont voté blanc ou nul.
I thought he would get more of Mélenchon's voters as well as more of Bayrou's. So how did he win? Apparently, the key reason cited by most people who supported Hollande was to "stop Sarkozy." So this really was an anti-Sarkozy vote.

Hollande also got only 14% of Le Pen's vote, according to this same survey. These very poor reports des voix really make the Hollande victory a puzzle. The numbers don't seem to add up, but it's only 5 in the morning here in California, so perhaps I'm a bit groggy.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

In other words, the polls are as reliable as, well, flipping a coin. :-)

Anonymous said...

The figures you cite come from polls that can be inaccurate. "Reports de voix" are estimated on sub-samples which mean that confidence intervals are large.

Moreover, don't forget the "report des voix" of 1st round abstentionists. There were roughly 10 millions abstentionnists, about the same number of people who voted for Hollande at the first round.

I'm curious to see if the left will be able to win the legislatives now Sarkozy is gone. They could miss the votes of some anti-sarkozist.

bernard said...

Participation hardly moved between the first and second round, whereas there usually is a pick-up of 3 to 4 points. It could be that Hollande's victory was too pre-announced and that some of his electors stayed home, so certain they were of the result.

Passerby said...

Abstentionism rates may be similar in the 2 rounds, but it doesn't mean that the same people didn't go to vote.

If participation rates where flat, and abstantion was high amongst FN/Bayrou supportes, it means other voters took their place.