Saturday, November 24, 2012

The Failure of EU Budget Talks

Analyzed here. Like every previous French leader, Hollande defended the Common Agricultural Policy rather than brave the ire of French farmers. Is he preparing a more ambitious negotiating position for the crucial December summit, or is he merely playing a tired, cautious, and conservative game to minimize political risk?


bert said...

Cela se voit. Cela s'est deja vu.

bert said...

The interesting ones to watch aren't the French, but the Germans. There's a small but non-negligible chance that France may find itself without a German backstop for its preferred position.

The last time this seemed possible was two budgets ago, when Chirac and Schroeder were unable to be in the same room without yelling at each other. It got so bad that eastern enlargement briefly looked under threat. But the Germans ensured it went ahead. The CAP was saved. Franco-German differences were smoothed over.

These are different times, though. The Germans are very self-consciously trying to build a particular European model. If they persuade themselves that a stand needs to be taken for responsibility and fiscal continence, then who knows what they're capable of.