Monday, December 10, 2012

Fillon, Copé Destroy Each Other

Copé is now approved by just 17% of respondents to an OpinionWay poll, well behind Marine Le Pen (31% approval). Fillon does slightly better, at 33%. Of course, such polls demonstrate nothing so much as the fickleness of the electorate, but at this point the two UMP "leaders" must be asking if the game is worth the candle.

4 comments:

Robert said...

The point is very pertinent, especially as I've always suspected the struggle was one between individuals -- and the media were overstating the alleged ideological differences between the two leaders.

Le Monde's Francoise Fressoz appears to think the same, since she says UMP has veered far to the right, something that will have an impact on its future platforms, regardless of who's the party leader. Money quote:

"En réalité, les deux candidats ont recruté des soutiens dans toutes les familles de l’UMP. "Si le maire de Meaux s'est imposé dans les départements du grand pourtour francilien, où l’influence du FN est forte, constate Jérôme Fourquet, dans l’Est intérieur (Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne), c’est l’ancien premier ministre qui a viré en tête dans des zones, pourtant elles aussi très droitisées.

Inversement, Jean-François Copé a devancé son rival dans la plupart des départements du grand quart Sud-Ouest (Poitou-Charentes, Limousin, Aquitaine et Midi-Pyrénées), territoires de tradition modérée."

You can also read the whole thing: http://fressoz.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/12/03/lump-un-parti-en-pleine-mutation-ideologique/

Cincinna said...

 This is all static; the next election is almost five years away. This is, I agree, a conflict of personality, not ideology. Most likely, the strongest personality, Sarko, will reassess himself, and bring everything back together.

 In the meantime, for DSK

C'EST FINI
 (at least for the moment)

Case against Strauss-Kahn ends with NY settlement

 Former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn and the New York hotel maid who accused him of sexual assault have reached an out-of-court settlement, a judge announced Monday, saying terms of the deal were confidential.

An 18-month legal saga pitting former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn against hotel maid Nafissatou Diallo is drawing to a close after a judge announced on Monday that a settlement had been reached in a civil case that Diallo brought against Strauss-Kahn for sexual assault.

Strauss-Kahn’s lawyers acknowledged last month that there had been settlement talks after reports of an agreement surfaced in US media. However, the lawyers rejected French newspaper claims that Strauss-Kahn would pay Diallo $6 million to drop the charges against him.
Strauss-Kahn was not required by the judge to appear personally in New York. His accuser, Nafissatou Diallo, was present, as the judge had ordered.
Strauss-Kahn, 63, has faced a litany of sex-related criminal accusations in the US and back in France since the affair involving Diallo first exploded in May 2011 but has yet to stand trial for any of the allegations.

http://france24.com/en/20121210-strauss-kahn-court-settlement-new-york-sex-assault-rape-charges-diallo

Mitch Guthman said...

@ MCG,

Yes, I agree both Hollande’s personality, instincts and overall style of governing have much in common with what I consider to be Obama’s worst traits. The one difference (and it is one which Bouvet do not really address) is that the difference between Hollande and Sarkozy have turned out not to be that significant on the leading questions of the day. Indeed, it seems to me that but for Mélenchon’s rise in the polls during the first round, Hollande would have triangulated on an even more rightward tack.ou just can’t triangulate against people who have someplace else to go.

Hollande’s problem is that triangulating only works for a centrist politician in control of center-left party if he isn’t merely the marginally lessor evil but clearly all that stands between his party and the abyss. Romney and a Republican Party that regards the John Birch Society as a mainstream organization represented the abyss to the left and center-left. An overwhelming percentage of Democrats (myself included) and political independents voted to reelect Obama because he was by far the lessor evil.

By contrast, the distance between the UMP under Sarkozy and the PS under Hollande is quite narrow. Alain Juppé, François Fillon and Sarkozy are not even remotely the French equivalents of Sarah Palin, Rick Perry or Alan West. Perhaps Copé may change things, but right now the UMP isn’t a scary clown show like the Republican Party in America. If the average PS voter become unhappy he can vote for Mélenchon in the first round and stay home in the second secure in the knowledge that a UMP victory won’t plunge France into the abyss.

Hollande may not find triangulation as easy as he thinks if his major economic policies adhere so closely to the Merkozy line that the PS rank and file see themselves as having very little to win by continuing to support Hollande and very little to lose by staying home. The lower the perceived costs or danger involved in throwing Hollande under the bus, the harder (and risker) it will be for Hollande to triangulate against the leftist and center-left elements in the PS.

Mitch Guthman said...

Last comment should have been with the “Bouvet’s ‘Hollandisme’” post in reply to MCG’s comment. Sorry.