Thursday, December 5, 2013

"Et tu, Brute?" Has Hollande lost the teachers too?

Are teachers deserting the Socialist Party along with everyone else? The most unkindest cut of all? Le Monde would have us think so:
« Les changements étalés dans les médias sont des miettes électorales, un saupoudrage de mesures rendues invisibles dans les écoles par l'afflux d'élèves [30 000 élèves de plus en 2013], s'énerve-t-elle. J'entends dire autour de moi : on a voté pour eux, et il ne se passe rien, on s'est bien fichu de nous… L'heure est à la désillusion. »
« Droite ou gauche, c'est la même logique, lâche Denis Pourrat, professeur de français dans un collège ZEP à Vaulx-en-Velin (Rhône). On est brossé dans le sens du poil, sans doute mieux considéré… Mais les conditions de travail ne changent pas, et la misère sociale, qui ne reste pas aux portes de l'école, exacerbe les difficultés. » Son cheval de bataille : « la chasse aux sans-papiers », dont il n'entrevoit pas d'infléchissement malgré la sanctuarisation de l'école promise après les affaires Khatchik et Leonarda. « On doit héberger des familles à la rue avec leurs enfants, les urgences sociales sont pleines à craquer dans le département », s'indigne-t-il.
If this is true, it's the end for Hollande.


Mitch Guthman said...

Obviously, this can’t possibly be welcome news and it may well be the final nail in the coffin of the PS but I’m not sure that it fundamentally changes the political situation for Hollande personally.

If Hollande is following the political strategy that I’ve previously spoken about here, then his hopes rest on two things: A sufficient improvement in France’s economic situation so as to allow him to reach the second round and facing MLP in the second round which would arguable present everyone from the far left to the Gaullist right with a binary choice in which he was the undeniable less bad choice.

So,losing the teachers looks bad at the moment but, if the French economy improves somewhat between now and the election, Hollande might yet be able to persuade them and enough of the others back into the fold. Remember that, at this point, he almost certainly will lose to anyone not named Le Pen.

As a practical matter, then, Hollande need only attract enough support to reach the second round and hope that his opponent is MLP. It is a very cynical strategy and it is clearly one that throws not only the PS but also the wellbeing of France under the bus but it has the advantage that Hollande need never act to improve the lives of his countrymen.

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PF said...

Maybe the PS leadership still has something up their sleeve. This article about possible behind-the-scenes planning between France and Italy for a 2014 macroeconomic counter-proposal to Germany is the most encouraging thing I've read in a while:çois-hollande-veut-travailler-la-zone-euro-à-la-dynamite.html

FrédéricLN said...

"If this is true, it's the end for Hollande." Well, I would not describe the social situation as such a nightmare — the difficulties ARE clearly increasing, but the emergency hospitalities for homeless people (CHU) were already full of illegal immigrants, including families, some years ago, as far as I know.

The issue is basically about the insane length of time that seems to be required before the asylum seekers receive an answer. In between, they are supposed to be hosted, fed, even paid (cents…) by the State, as they are not allowed to work. But they are much too many compared to the number of "beds" (places) in the hospitalities, so, as far as I understand, only families with children are actually hosted.

BTW, this has not much to see with the financial/economic crisis. If the country was as prosperous as Qatar, much more emigrants would certainly try to come in France even illegally.