Sunday, March 22, 2015

First Results: UMP wins, FN falls short

According to France2, the UMP has 32%, while the PS and FN are both at around 25. Marine Le Pen's hope that these departmental elections would confirm the FN as the "no. 1 party" in France has been disappointed. The PS seems to have done much better than predicted.

2 comments:

bernard said...

Please beware that different polling institutes are giving very different estimates at this time. Part of these discrepancies are linked, I would suspect, to the difficulties in classifying various candidates in local elections. For instance, a left candidate may be supported by the PS without being a PS proper candidate, leading to classification divergence among polling institutes. Same for UMP obviously.

One interesting point: voter participation is not especially low for this type of election compared to history, contrary to pre-election predictions. It is actually more or less average.

A second point: FN is clearly substantially lower than predicted prior to the election. Either Valls's interventions worked to some extent or a suspicion of mine for a while would be that polling institutes have got their raw polling data adjustment wrong on the FN: as FN voting becomes common place, the old upward correction (linked to people hiding the fact that they voted for those as..holes) is much less necessary today -ie. polling institutes will now structurally over-estimate FN.

In any case, due to the first point, we should wait for actual results before drawing actual conclusions.

FrédéricLN said...

Well, FN is actually at 25%, with 1 candidate ticket per canton, while the right+the center, often with several candidates, and including many non-card-carrying candidates, reach 37%: the sole UMP cannot pretend to represent 2/3 f that. Therefore the FN claim to be the first party in France is rather confirmed imho. Polls (and myself) may have foreseen 30%, and classic candidates really living in the canton and campaigning there kept more ground than expected. The FN rise remains huge, compared to the "nullité" of most of its candidates : in many places, no FN candidate even went, their posters appeared one or two days before the election…

The ruling coalition, without Communists/FG/Greens but including all "divers gauche" (often non-card-carrying) get 29%. That's quite low, maybe unseen under the Vth Republic with the possible exception of 1985 http://www.electionscope.fr/s/cc_images/teaserbox_2455480252.png?t=1424520062 (in 1985, communist Ministres had just left the Fabius government).