Sunday, March 22, 2015

First Results: UMP wins, FN falls short

According to France2, the UMP has 32%, while the PS and FN are both at around 25. Marine Le Pen's hope that these departmental elections would confirm the FN as the "no. 1 party" in France has been disappointed. The PS seems to have done much better than predicted.


bernard said...

Please beware that different polling institutes are giving very different estimates at this time. Part of these discrepancies are linked, I would suspect, to the difficulties in classifying various candidates in local elections. For instance, a left candidate may be supported by the PS without being a PS proper candidate, leading to classification divergence among polling institutes. Same for UMP obviously.

One interesting point: voter participation is not especially low for this type of election compared to history, contrary to pre-election predictions. It is actually more or less average.

A second point: FN is clearly substantially lower than predicted prior to the election. Either Valls's interventions worked to some extent or a suspicion of mine for a while would be that polling institutes have got their raw polling data adjustment wrong on the FN: as FN voting becomes common place, the old upward correction (linked to people hiding the fact that they voted for those as..holes) is much less necessary today -ie. polling institutes will now structurally over-estimate FN.

In any case, due to the first point, we should wait for actual results before drawing actual conclusions.

FrédéricLN said...

Well, FN is actually at 25%, with 1 candidate ticket per canton, while the right+the center, often with several candidates, and including many non-card-carrying candidates, reach 37%: the sole UMP cannot pretend to represent 2/3 f that. Therefore the FN claim to be the first party in France is rather confirmed imho. Polls (and myself) may have foreseen 30%, and classic candidates really living in the canton and campaigning there kept more ground than expected. The FN rise remains huge, compared to the "nullité" of most of its candidates : in many places, no FN candidate even went, their posters appeared one or two days before the election…

The ruling coalition, without Communists/FG/Greens but including all "divers gauche" (often non-card-carrying) get 29%. That's quite low, maybe unseen under the Vth Republic with the possible exception of 1985 (in 1985, communist Ministres had just left the Fabius government).