Monday, July 13, 2015

Endgame in Greece

It didn't end as I had hoped, but it's important to be lucid about what this episode has demonstrated. European politics will not be the same going forward. I offer some initial thoughts here. The implications for French politics are profound.

Euro wins, Europe loses: From Beethoven's Ode to Joy to Rihanna's S&M

So in the end my faint glimmer of hope was misplaced. It came down to a German diktat, with Hollande sitting in the room probably congratulating himself that he had prevented Wolfgang Schäuble from forcing Greece out of the euro, along the lines I suggested yesterday. But in retrospect it seems clear that Schäuble was prepared to yield on Grexit if nothing else. He got everything he wanted and more. Merkel, when she finally ended her temporizing, proved to be German at heart rather than European.

So the euro is saved, but the euro, it is now clear, is going to be a thorn in Europe's side if not a spike in its heart for years to come. Institutional change is impossible in today's climate of inflamed nationalism. One can even doubt that there is anything left in the European project worth saving. Europe should change its anthem from Beethoven's Ode to Joy to Rihanna's S&M.

Perhaps tomorrow will look brighter.