Wednesday, December 14, 2016

The Polls ... Fluctuate

Le Monde covers the latest CEVIPOF poll with great seriousness, as though a fluctuation of a couple of points were a significant indicator rather than sampling noise. This permits them to portray Macron's small advantage over Valls and slightly larger advantage over Montebourg as major news, while neglecting the fact that Mélenchon is running neck-and-neck with the lot of them. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen has slipped a bit behind Fillon, who is enjoying a post-primary bubble. In short, all's quiet on the western front: the second round is still Fillon vs. Le Pen, with nobody from the left even within shouting distance unless by some miracle they settle on a common candidate--in which case their voters might desert them anyway.

And what reason is there to put any faith in polls this year anyway?