Thursday, February 2, 2017

He's Toast

« Je n’ai jamais été son assistante », déclarait Penelope Fillon en 2007

29 comments:

Passerby said...


After winning the primary, Fillon had "un boulevard" to the Elysée palace. Somehow in a record time he managed to get bogged down with affairs...
On top of my head I can't think of a comparable "from riches to rags" candidacy for the French election.

Anonymous said...

Apparently the leaks are coming from WikiLeaks. Not sure why Russians might want to sabotage Fillon, who is allegedly favorable to Putin, unless they think it'll help MLP.
Hamon is unexpected enough there's likely little about him but if I were him and the ps I'd password protect the heck out of every single database, computer, laptop, tablet, phone, and connected object.

bert said...

Well, the quote in Art's post seems to come from good journalism.
Someone noticed a British puff piece on Fillon's wife had been accompanied by a video. They tracked down the independent producer and got hold of the rushes.

Amusing that the video was commissioned by the Sunday Telegraph, the readership of which is the UK equivalent of the stereotypical Fillon supporter.

mpz13 said...

This is the best political show we've had in ages ! Nothing that good since the ludi circenses of the Roman empire. See the fearless mighty candidates and gladiators ! See the incorruptible christian François Million being fed to the lions ! Live show, free entry. In your city until May 7th.

Anonymous said...

I apologize - the canard leaks // WikiLeaks (with or without Sarkozy), last nail in the coffin is great investigation by Envoye special.
So, can he recover or is he out?

Passerby said...


First time I hear about Wikileaks in this affair. Up to now, the only rumored culprits were the socialists and Rachida Dati.

Tim said...

The Spectator in the UK is implying this is all a stitchup by Macron's ENA buddies.

Anonymous said...

Well, the only people I'd heard as culprits were Sarkozy (revenge to be eaten cold) or Macron (finance shark, worked in IB - so, unlike the PS, wouldn't come with a pocket knife to a gun fight). I really don't think the PS can do that, even if Fillon claimed they would. They don't have any Guéant type and they're totally disorganized at the present moment.
RT, the Russian propaganda website, has an article where you also learn Hillary Clinton had received a cable about Macron
https://francais.rt.com/france/33304-wikileaks-publie-documents-fillon-lepen
but apparently these "leaks" don't deal with Penelopegate. So, no one knows how the Canard got its information. It was solid though, and from someone who knew Fillon enough to know exactly where to find the flaw and how to use it.

Bernard said...

It appears that Honest Fillon will be unplugged by larche (close friend) and Juppe will be unanimously begged to step in. Today. Source is obs. Likely reliable.

Bernard said...

On another more serious note, those who doubt the usefulness of the Sentinelle op may want to check the news today. As well, the present rules of engagement, which I happen to know, have been illustrated. Do not believe for one second that the famas are not loaded or ready to fire at a moment's notice. They are and the order loop is quite short indeed.

Newby said...

Jeez! - I'm a resident Brit (for over sixteen years) and newly naturalised French so I can vote for a President this time. What a choice! Desperately trying to get my mind and prejudices sorted out...

Cincinna said...

@Anonymous
I'm astonished about the revelations about Fillon, that it would not have been uncovered during his long political career and as PM for seven years. Re Wikileaks: whatever one may thing of their politics, everything they have ever come out with has been proven to be correct.

I strongly doubt that Juppé will be unanimously solicited. He has definitively said he's out if politics, and would refuse.
Sarkozy supporters, his official site and support sites, especially @Sarko_Junior (Louis Sarkozy in English) on Twitter and FB. He is really his fathers son, a chip off the old block!

Unless a powerful fighter on the center right emerges and declares himself a candadte, we are, unfortunately, looking at the strong possibility of a MLP presidency.
I have no crystal ball, and cannot predict that Sarko could beat MLP. I do believe he is the only one who would have a fighting chance.






Stuart said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Stuart said...

The polls would have to be hugely inaccurate for MLP to have a chance at the moment. It's not a matter of a few points, as with Trump or Brexit.

It's possible they are hugely wrong, I suppose, and it's possible she'll gain supporters before the election but, even so, to say that only Sarkozy would have a chance doesn't seem right.

Bernard said...

Not to worry Stuart, Cincinna just loves Clean Sarkozy. She doesn't like Honest Fillon because he retired Clean Sarkozy. And MLP indeed doesn't stand a single chance in hell. Oops, that's where she belongs.

bert said...

David Cameron was telling people he'd win 70:30

But blind faith in a malignant midget is not the righteous path, children.
Hate the cin, love the cinna.

Tim said...

I wanted to post a link to blog post by aviation suggesting the many ways France could benefit from Trump's protectionist policies. Macron should use this as a sledgehammer against MLP.

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=507

"First, China. As The Economist put it (January 28), “Economic Armageddon became a bit more likely when Donald Trump took office on January 20th, given his threats to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports.” His administration has rattled all available sabers, threatening a blockade of China’s South China Sea bases and an end to the US’s One China policy. This could easily lead a trade war. An obvious target would be jetliners, with China’s orders shifted from Boeing to Airbus. This is the greatest risk for Boeing and its suppliers. In 2016, they delivered 126 jets to China, with more going there via lessor; it’s their most important export market."

As with China, the easiest way for the Gulf carriers to retaliate against a protectionist air travel move is to switch orders from Boeing to Airbus. The biggest problem with this is Boeing’s 777X. Of the 306 firm orders, 235 are for the three Gulf carriers. Boeing is making a $10 billion investment in this plane; losing 77% of the order book would have a devastating impact on investor perceptions of the company. And Delta’s political base is far more pro-Trump than Boeing’s; Trump and his allies might just decide that Washington State is completely irrelevant to their political and economic concerns. Meanwhile, Boeing’s Iran deal will likely vanish if (or when) the new administration gets around to re-imposing sanctions."

Tim said...

While this might sound like a "cheap" shot I am curious as to why Marinne Le Pen choose to fly on American Airlines from Paris to New York recently instead of Air France. MLP is after all supposed to be the ultimate French patriot as she likes to say. So what is she doing flying on American instead of Air France. Whatever AF's labor union problems its service level is far better than American. Basically there are two reasons for MLP to fly AA instead of AF. Price i.e. despite her being a multi millionaire she is a cheap bastard or that she is so unpopular among the French public better to fly on an airline that has more "American" passengers than French.

Mitch Guthman said...

He may be toast but apparently Fillon has concluded that he's personally got nothing to lose by taking his free shot at making the second round against MLP, at which point he will presumably call for a republican front against the FN. How well that will work remains to be seen but I think he's decided that it costs him nothing to keep going and it clear that he can be forced to step aside. But he still has to be the odds on favorite to win the presidency and all the increases in his personal wealth that will apparently go with it.

bernard said...

@Mitch
Actually, I think that you've got it backwards. Honest Fillon would have everything to lose by stepping down: equivalent to an admission of guilt, party in tatters, political career over, personal consequences etc... It is by staying in that he has a small upside: to be beaten by Macron, if the margin is not too great in the first round would look like an honorable defeat. I know that a majority of conservative electors believed him yesterday (lie almost 70%) but that is far from enough to qualify for the second round: he needs to stop the electorate leakage now and he needs to reverse it fully, otherwise he stays toast. Chances of that happening after today's news on Clean Sarkozy are slim indeed, not to mention news to come, like, tomorrow. Art is right.

Alexandra Marshall said...

Mitch I've always thought if presented with the choice between Le Pen and Fillon (as advertised in his first big push to voters in the primary) that even I would vote Le Pen for the sake of the social security system. Fillon offers a different archetype from Le Pen--he's differently marked by class, for one thing, and culture--but his program is even more brutal, and his stances on social issues reveals a similar reactionary bent. If not to quite the extreme of Le Pen, he's really not far. A lot of Fillon voters may go to Le Pen and boost her now, but I am quite sure many will also go to Macron, who is palatable to the right for obvious reasons (a lot of his still-emerging program is supply side). As terrified as I've been about this election, I am way less worried than I was.

(Do not take that as a guarantee of anything, OBVIOUSLY.)

So now of course cue the gay rumors. We're about to see if Macron has what it takes to take this all on down in the slimy trenches. And we're still waiting for that program. But all of that a given, unless Vlad's kids can unearth some real dirt on him, I don't see this being Le Pen.

Anonymous said...

The'gay' rumor is so bizarre. Would it really hurt Macron to be a suspected bisexual guy? In France? Wouldn't it make him 'cool'to a large enough group of voters?

Bernard said...

@anonymous
gays in any given country are, I'm told, 10 to 15 percent of the population. So, a majority it doesn't make.
Macron's response, yesterday evening was brilliant. It reminded me of someone prominent I knew in the early eighties, unmarried and sent a honey trap by the KGB. The following day he sent an ironical thank you letter to the Resident in Paris, and asked: please send many more, I'm not married.

Alexandra Marshall said...

French politics is still a very macho arena. To wit: legions of tales of sexual harrassment and women deputies getting clucked at like a chicken when they take the podium. Where sexism goes it's usually followed by its friend homophobia. Then again, there have been out gay politicians in France. Times are changing. Macron is going for the liberal, tolerant, cosmopolitan brand. I'd love to see it not matter. If he lies and gets caught, that's what matters. So if he is stepping out with Gallet (and God, who wouldn't, he's dreamy) I hope he is excellent at covering his tracks.

Anonymous said...

I meant.. Don't a majority of French people see nothing wrong with guys being gay? Didn't they elect the Mayor of Paris a long time ago and he was out? Aren't even the manifestation pour tous marchers trying not to sound homophobic, meaning being straight and homophobic is not a positive in France? I mean, would people who like Macron seriously not vote for him if he were bisexual? Wouldn't they go, like, 'good for you man'?
Also I don't understand the 'Please send many more, I'm not married ' in relation to Macron. He is married, it doesn't mean he's faithful, but for France it's not been a liability I think. ??

Anonymous said...

@Alexandra Marshall: I understood your preferring Le Pen over Fillon, but: http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/marine-le-pen-la-russie-pousserait-sa-candidature-selon-la-dgse-7787143387

Alexandra Marshall said...

yes this was an encouraging headline to read. also the undervaluing of le pen assets, and that the EU is not going to back down on her fake jobs drama, even if she is smartly using the scandal to make it about the heroic le pen vs the EU. are her voters as insane and blinded to common sense as trumps?

bert said...

Alexandra, don't make the mistake yourself of undervaluing Le Pen's assets.
These scandals, as they stand, seem lacking in breakthrough potential.

At the same stage of the US election, multiple intelligence agencies were briefing the White House and Congress that there was an active Russian hacking programme. Most of them concluded it was specifically intended to help Trump (with some choosing not to make a call on that). Contrast that with the reported briefings of the DGSE. ”Pousserait”, not pousse, or even poussera.

And the Parliament thing is nowhere near as toxic as Penelopegate. To suggest this by talking about "fake jobs” is to kid yourself. If you'll excuse a bit of snark, it's longstanding national policy to gouge the European Parliament in blatant self-interest. Anyone who's had to struggle to a Strasbourg sitting can tell you as much.

Alexandra Marshall said...

yeah i don't see a ton of normals shedding any tears over brussels, you have a good point. though the eu itself isn't going to let it drop.