Wednesday, February 22, 2017

"Plus rien à foutre"

Brice Teinturier, the head of the polling firm IPSOS, was interviewed on France Inter this morning about his new book Plus rien à faire, plus rien à foutre. As he tells it, large numbers of French people--32% of the electorate, according to his most recent estimate--are completely turned off of politics (and skeptical of democracy). These are not angry voters of the sort who support Le Pen and Mélenchon. They're rather turned-off voters, who believe that the decisions of politicians make no difference in their lives and that political talk is all hot air. The increase in their number is, according to Teinturier, one of the reasons underlying the diminished capacity of political parties to organize the electorate.

Underlying Teinturier's observations is a theory. It goes like this. The period 2007-2017 has been unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic, in that it offered an alternation between a pure right-wing quinquennat and a pure left-wing one. In short, both the center-left and the center-right had a chance, undiluted by cohabitation, to show what they could do, and neither provided a solution to the problems perceived by the PRAF (plus rien à foutre ... avec la politique) group to be the major difficulties of the moment. Hence they turned off, drawing the conclusion that the choice between right and left no longer determined their fate. Their disillusionment was exacerbated by the fact that it followed a moment of renewed hope for each camp, Sarkozy briefly reinvigorating the right after years of the fainéant Chirac and Hollande briefly reinvigorating the left.

If these voters are drawn back in, Teinturier believes, it will be by one of the extremes, Mélenchon or Le Pen, and most likely the latter. Macron does not fit the profile: his voters are not turned off by politics but are highly tuned in, identify with the decision-making class, and believe that their choice will matter.

I would not have guessed that the turned-off portion of the population was as large as Teinturier says it is, but I do think he's on to something.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Here's a link to the Teinturier interview within the entire program :

https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/l-invite-de-8h20/l-invite-de-8h20-22-fevrier-2017

Unknown said...

.. and the second half , Q&A with listeners :

https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/interactiv/interactiv-22-fevrier-2017

Alexandra Marshall said...

This has me thinking about a much-discussed piece over in the US about the nihilism behind the underachievers who voted Trump. Sounds like the same dynamic: no expectation of improvement, feeling entirely shut out of the process and of upward mobility in general, turns to extremes just to pull the wings off of the flies. Optimism has long ago left the building.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.eb91d3kie



bert said...

This video sums up a similar state of affairs:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2017/feb/22/they-dont-care-about-us-the-anger-and-apathy-behind-the-stoke-byelection-video

There's a test of opinion tomorrow in the UK - a parliamentary by-election in Stoke.
Nigel Farage's successor as UKIP leader is attempting to get a Westminster seat.
Extraneous factors mean UKIP may lose (it's mentioned in passing in the video - google ”Paul Nuttall Hillsborough” for more, if you're interested). That doesn't make the video any less depressing.
And a Labour victory in Stoke won't keep Jeremy Corbyn safe. There are two by-elections tomorrow, and Labour look likely to lose the other one to the government, which would be a seriously damaging result.