Wednesday, February 22, 2017

The Cost of Frexit

Marine Le Pen is advocating an end to the euro and withdrawal from the EU if she wins. How much would this cost the French economy. The Institut Montaigne estimates a loss of 500,000 jobs and numerous other dire consequences.

12 comments:

bert said...

Institut Montaigne?
”Ma vie a été remplie de terribles malheurs, dont la plupart ne se sont jamais produits.”

Use this line of attack, by all means. The British experience may be a caution however that it cannot be relied upon to work. Before the claims can be tested, the decision will have been made.

Art Goldhammer said...

Bert, There's one big difference between Brexit and Frexit. France is in the Eurozone. The cost of unraveling contracts denominated in euros will be enormous.

bert said...

I don't disagree. And the costs of Brexit are real enough. The Leave chorus have been full-throated in gloating about the failure of near-term predictions to be borne out. That doesn't mean that actual Brexit, when it comes, won't be enormously damaging.

My point was more about the campaign. In the current atmosphere, I'm afraid expert assessments carry less weight than they should. Particularly among potential MLP voters.

Tim said...

A much likely scenario than Brexit would be in the immediate days prior to the last Quebec referendum on independence in 1995 when there were substantial flows out Quebec banks due to fear over whether a sovereign Quebec could continue to use Canadian dollars. In the case of France vis a vis the rest of the Eurozone the results could be even worse than in Quebec. In Quebec most of the banks were based in(Toronto) and had extensive operations in the rest of Canada. So the likelihood the Federally chartered Canadian would and would be able to honor Canadian Dollar deposits in Quebec branches was very high. Nonetheless there was still a substantial outflow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnF46gRSPig&t=2564s

baronniesereinedecaux said...

Project fear, à la Française. How many million jobs already lost as consequence of French adoption of single currency? Instit Montain in any case hardly disinterested.

bert said...

”Project Fear” is a slogan. It was deployed in the referendum campaign much as ”fake news” is being deployed now. I don't think there's any question that Brexit will be disruptive and damaging. When they are not in denial about this, Brexit's advocates appear to believe it will be creative destruction.

The relevance for the election campaign is that the role of impartial expert appears to have been cut back hard, if not entirely. (I posted a comment to that effect in response to Art upthread but it didn't make it through moderation - that happens sometimes, no big deal.)

Art Goldhammer said...

What moderation? Comments on this blog are not moderated. Yours are sometimes sent to the spam folder, for reasons that escape me, while ads from Vietnamese and Cambodian tour operators seem to sail through unimpeded. I'd blame Trump, but this was happening even under Obama. :)

bert said...

This is your space, Art. Commenters aren't entitled. And spam control is time-consuming, like weeds in the garden. Am I right in thinking you turned off linking in comments, as an antispam measure? Again, your call.
I enjoy posting here because you've got a range of smart people taking it seriously. Elsewhere often gets overrun by pisstakers and trolls, who don't.

By the way, hate the new captcha that fades in and out.
Nothing to do with you, I know.

Art Goldhammer said...

Bert, Once again, your comment went into spam. I just rescued it. The problem is that Blogger tells me when a comment has been posted but doesn't indicate that it's gone into the spam folder. The accepted ones and the rejected ones appear in my mailbox without distinction. So unless I look into the spam folder, I don't know. And I don't have time to be checking constantly. So if you post a comment that doesn't appear, send me an e-mail to let me know. I value your point of view.

bert said...

I'll try instead with my (egg-avatared) Google ID.
See if that helps.

Art Goldhammer said...

Yes, that worked without my intervention.

bert said...

Win!