Friday, March 3, 2017

Is Juppé Coming Back?

The pressure is increasing on the mayor of Bordeaux to mount his white charger and ride to the rescue. The saga of Les Républicains is beginning to look like the perils of Pauline, although at the moment it looks like everyone wants to leave the heroine Fillon tied to the tracks as the locomotive runs her over. The exasperation with the stubborn candidate is palpable.

I lectured in Ottawa yesterday on the election and failed to mention the Juppé groundswell. It seems to have gained considerable strength overnight. One can only imagine the febrile conversations among Republicans. I hope they've sorted things out by the time of my next lecture next week. It's getting to be annoying to have to redo my PowerPoints every 24 hours.

10 comments:

TexExile said...

So instead of running the guy who is being investigated for fictional employment, LR can run the guy convicted of same. Nice.

Yes, I know the cases are very different. As far as I understand it, Juppé was not enriching himself (or his wife and kids) and he took his lumps and was a pretty good sport about it. I personally like the post-conviction Juppé better than the pre-conviction model. Still, one cannot help but wonder about the part when the three big beasts of LR all have such difficulties with the prosecutors.

Lapinot said...

A new poll says he'd win the first round ahead of Macron, knocking Le Pen out of the race: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2017/03/03/97001-20170303FILWWW00114-sondage-juppe-devant-macron-s-il-se-presentait.php

TexExile said...

Addendum: a French colleague with whom I discussed this referred to the story of a nice little apartment in the rue Jacob paid for by the city of Paris for Juppé and an HLM (!) for his son in that same street. These are not things I've heard about before, but if they are true, he could enter the race just in time to get Filloned by the press.

bernard said...

@texexile
The stories are indeed true and came out in mid-1995 when Juppé was prime minister under Chirac. As I recall it was on this occasion that he used the expression "je suis droit dans mes bottes" (another of your wonderful translations, please, Art, please). Of course the stories were soon to be dwarfed and forgotten (they moved out of these cosy rentals) as the giant social conflict of late 1995 came up.

I somehow doubt if they would re-emerge now for two reasons: we are talking 20 years ago on the one hand, the HLM practice is still widespread among a large spectrum on the other hand (ie. mentioning the subject has the capacity to bite one back in uncomfortable places). But we'll see.

Well I guess there is indeed something rotten, maybe not in the Kingdom of Denmark, closer likely to the rue de Vaugirard where a certain party has its headquarters.

bernard said...

@all

I have seen over the years quite a lot of commentators on this blog who fell under the spell of that other political failure, NKM, the oh so modern icon of LR, oh so pro-green. This oh so impressive lady, who scored perhaps something like 3% (what political fight didn't she loose BTW) in the LR primaries, is still supporting Fillon at this time, which puts her in something like a 5% minority among his campaign staff (the rest have, wisely, left, see a splendid illustration by Pascal Riché in l'Obs). Her courage and obstinacy are indeed remarkable and my only hypothesis is that those who fell under her spell in the past actually fell for her beautiful looks and thought she must be bright as a consequence.

That was my drone attack for the day.

mpz13 said...

@bernard
Yes I confess. I read her book. I liked it. I felt she was "décalée". I was pissed when she joined Fillon. I was pissed a couple of other times when she opened her mouth. I am pissed that she still remains with Fillon. I never was impressed by her looks though...
On the other hand, I don't bet a "bouton de culotte" on Juppé's chances to make it to the second round. I am pretty sure, he's toast too. He lost. He's old. He not right wing enough to win Fillon's and Sarko's voters. He lost Bayrou's support. I wouldn't pay for the poll that puts him ahead of Macron ! ! ! I mean, it might be an indication of voting intentions on thursday between 12 and 14h among 900 internet surfers, but no more than that. Juppé is a looser, and as J.F. Kahn wisely wrote that's why he'll run and loose. The L.R. should choose a younger dude if they want to bother Macron. The political death of Fillon reminds me the first of the Coen brothers film : Blood simple.

bernard said...

@mpz13
on Juppé, I tend to agree with your assessment: il n'y a pas de sauveur suprême at this time. Maybe a month ago, maybe. On polls, we must just remember that nothing is worse for the press than an election that would be devoid of suspense, which is what it is right now. I must download Blood simple, haven't watched it!

Unknown said...

Surely the game now is "Les legislatives" and the chance to win a majority, or strong representation, in the Assembly assuming Macron wins the Presidency, but, without a strong party machine, will have difficulty winning a parliamentary majority. So then the question is who can lead the LR into the 3rd and 4th "tours" after Fillon's defeat and resignation as the head of the Party?

And later, who can prevent a split and rebuild the party.

Anonymous said...

Both PS and LR are already planning for the legislative elections where they hope to get a majority.

mpz13 said...

@Bernard. About my past foolishness regarding NKM... I wrote her an open letter here : http://boojumism.com/lettre-ouverte-nkm/