Friday, April 28, 2017

Another Rat Boards the (Hopefully) Sinking Ship

Présidentielle : Nicolas Dupont-Aignan apporte son soutien à Marine Le Pen

Sans Commentaire: Jalkh Resigns From FN Presidency

Editorial du « Monde ». Ce n’est pas une péripétie. Ce n’est pas insignifiant. Ce n’est pas un « détail », est-on tenté de dire. Le président par intérim du Front national (FN), Jean-François Jalkh, a été contraint, vendredi 28 avril, à démissionner. Nommé il y a quelques jours à la tête du FN par Mme Marine Le Pen qui, par ce geste, entendait séduire au-delà de son électorat habituel, M. Jalkh s’est vu reprocher un passé « négationniste ». Le chef d’une formation dont la candidate, Mme Le Pen, guigne la plus haute fonction élective en France doutait de la réalité des chambres à gaz durant la deuxième guerre mondiale.

The Second-Round Campaign

Dear Readers,
You may find me surprisingly silent, just as everyone else has become vociferous. I confess that I'm tired. I've been traveling around the country giving lectures on the election. I spoke for two hours last night to interested Harvard students and will spend another two hours at Boston College today. Then it's off to Columbia in New York and from there on to Houston. So I'm talked out.

I'm also surprised. I had thought that the first round would lead to a clarification of the case for "steady as she goes." Instead, it has turned into a sort of zombie war, in which the undead hulks of the losing candidates stalk about feeding on poor Emmanuel Macron. For die-hard Mélenchoniens he has become the dread symbol of all they detest, the hypercapitalist neoliberal Euro/technocrat indifferent to the fate of the workers of the world, the very face of greed, the fattest of fat cats, the two-faced banker, nay, the two-faced investment banker, or better yet, the lying Rothschild banker who pretends to be neither right nor left, or both right and left, or both socialist and not-socialist--in short, a monster. For die-hard Hamonistes he is the usurper, the traitor to the party who stole its birthright, displaced its president, rejected its primary, and yet in the end a raflé la mise. And for die-hard Fillonistes, he is nothing but a Bolshevik in a suit.

Forgotten in all this bitterness over the victory of the wrong man is the real enemy, the Le Pen clan, which is eagerly wooing the Macron-rejectionists of all stripes by painting Marine as the fulfillment of their every fantasy and wish. Macron will close your plants; Marine will join you at the factory gate for a selfie party, and if snapshots of your unemployed self with the aggressively smiling blonde don't put food on the table, she'll promise to nationalize your industry, just as the left used to do back when there were real socialists running the show rather than forts en thème who married their French teachers. Macron will sell you out by governing with the likes of Xavier Bertrand; Marine will defend the working class by elevating fine, upstanding citizens like Jean-François Jalkh. Macron will besmirch the purity of La Grande Nation by permitting discussion of the darker aspects of the French past in public schools; Marine will scour away all the tarnish. Macron will surrender to the Germans and dissolve France in the acid of Europe; Marine will preserve la bonne vieille France in aspic, serve only le jambon de Bayonne in every school cafeteria of France and Navarre, and thereby drive out the foreigners who don't deserve to be called French merely by grace of le droit du sol.

The campaign itself has degenerated into a war of televised set-pieces. Macron meets with union reps; Marine outflanks him among the rank-and-file; Macron counters with his own jaw-jutting confrontation in the parking lot, reminiscent of Sarkozy's famous colloquy with the worker mounted on a crane: "Tu veux me parler, déscends de là si t'es un homme." Marine goes to sea with les marins-pêcheurs and plays with un poulpe. Macron meanwhile plays soccer in Sarcelles with la jeunesse des banlieues. 

Eventually there will be a debate. Macron will defend globalization with arguments; Marine will tear it down with anecdotes. And then France will vote. Macron will be elected by a landslide. Make no mistake. Do not be distracted by the endless men in the street assiduously uncovered by the TV journalists, who naturally have no difficulty finding vendors in open-air markets or housewives on streetcorners prepared to declare, for the edification of all, "Ben, oui, je vote Front National pour la première fois, et pourquoi pas, on a tout essayé et la France va toujours mal." He will win nevertheless. And then the troubles will begin all over again. For those who see this election as a choice between continuity and change are in one sense right: France is traversing a storm, but those who think that the way out is to steer the ship onto the rocks (Change!) are wrong, while those who think that a safe harbor can still be reached if the necessary course corrections are undertaken in time (More of the same!) are right.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Le Non-Consigne de Mélenchon, The Virtue of Xavier Bertrand

Jean-Luc Mélenchon has announced that he will give no consigne de vote for the second round and will not say how he will vote personally. He has "consulted democratically" with the 450,000 adherents of La France Insoumise, offering them 3 choices: 1) abstain, 2) cast a blank ballot, 3) vote Macron (voting Le Pen is not an option, although polls show that around 18% of his supporters intend to do just that:


Mélenchon's "democratic" discretion contrasts sharply with his attitude in 2002, when he called unambiguously and unreservedly on the "peuple de gauche" to vote for Chirac in the second round against J.-M. Le Pen. What has changed? The Front National? I think not (see previous post). "Neoliberalism?" Really? Is Macron a greater threat to Mélenchon's values and principles than Chirac was?

No. What has changed is Mélenchon. His common sense has been vanquished by his ego. Even "ni-ni" Sarkozy has announced that he will vote for Macron. Mélenchon thus replaces him as the most insufferable prima donna in French politics. Compare his dishonorable intransigence with Xavier Bertrand's admirable statement on France2 last night: "I am not 'throwing myself in the arms of Macron,'" he said, contrasting his position with the words of Georges Fenech. "I disagree with Macron about many things, but when it comes to opposing Le Pen, I cannot remain indifferent."

This has been a dispiriting campaign, but the last few days have cast a revealing light on any number of political personalities.

The FN's Interim President

As everyone knows, Marine Le Pen began her second-round campaign with a stunt, dramatically stepping down temporarily from the presidency of the Front National. (She followed up with a second stunt, trying to steal Macron's thunder by appearing at the Whirlpool plant in Amiens, but he countered effectively by bravely confronting the hostile crowd there in the wake of her visit.) To replace her she named Jean-François Jalkh, a low-profile FN VP who turns out to have quite a history:

Le 19 mai 2015, Jean-François Jalkh est mis en examen pour « escroqueries, abus de confiance et acceptation par un parti politique d'un financement provenant d'une personne morale ». Il est poursuivi en tant que secrétaire général de Jeanne, un micro-parti, dirigé par des personnalités proches de Marine Le Pen, qui fait lui-même l’objet d’une mise en examen en tant que personne morale. Il est le premier haut cadre du FN à être inquiété dans cette affaire14. Les juges ordonnent, en octobre 2016 son renvoi devant le tribunal correctionnel15,16.
Il est également cité dans l'affaire de la politique d'embauche des assistants parlementaires de Jean-Marie Le Pen. Ce dernier, alors eurodéputé, aurait employé Jean-François Jalkh sans pour autant pouvoir prouver un quelconque travail d'assistance. Le Parlement européen réclame à Le Pen le remboursement des 320 000 € pour emploi fictif.
He may also be a Holocaust denier.

En 2000, il déclare, d'après des propos rapportés cinq ans plus tard dans Le Temps des savoirs, qu'il distingue parmi les négationnistes et les révisionnistes, d'une part les « gens détestables », et d'autre part « [un] négationniste ou [un] révisionniste sérieux » comme Robert Faurisson, évoquant « le sérieux et la rigueur [...] de l'argumentation » ; dans une phrase dont on ne sait si elle reflète sa pensée ou résume celle d’un autre, il conclut « sur l’utilisation d’un gaz, par exemple, qu’on appelle le Zykon B [sic], moi je considère que d’un point de vue technique, il est impossible […] je dis bien impossible de l’utiliser dans des […] exterminations de masse » — dans le même temps, Jean-François Jalkh rejette l'étiquette de négationniste pour lui-même6,20. Il dément avoir tenu ces propos lorsqu'ils sont relayés par Laurent de Boissieu à l'occasion de son accession à la présidence du FN par intérim21 ; David Rachline indique quant à lui que Jean-François Jalkh « a déposé une plainte parce que cette affaire est montée de toutes pièces »6. La chercheuse Magali Boumaza, qui a recueilli ses propos, confirme ses écrits et affirme en détenir la preuve6,22. Pour sa défense, Jean-François Jalkh met en avant sa proximité dans les années 1980 avec le secrétaire général du parti de l’époque, Jean-Pierre Stirbois, accusé au sein de l’extrême droite d’être un « agent sioniste »22.

Legislative Elections

The rules are complicated. Triangulaires, quadrangulaires--such things can happen depending on the turnout and the division of votes in the first round. Le Monde sums up the rules here. And try this interactive tool.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

My Hot Take on the Election

Here.

Ouf!

Macron 23, Le Pen 21, JLM/Fillon 19. Best possible outcome from my point of view. Now a complicated game begins to determine the complexion of the Macron government. Vive la France, vive la République!

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Arun's Summary

Arun Kapil gives us a terrific roundup of how things stand on the eve of the contest.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Dernière Ligne Droite

Well, it's coming to the wire, and madness reigns more than ever. Last night's terror attack en plein non-débat may have shaken things up yet again, just as the undecided were coming off the fence. I am in Indiana, where I have been lecturing on the election at Purdue. I refused to make any prediction during my talks here, and I woke up this morning still with no idea how this will turn out. My gut tells me ... nothing. And since I've been watching French elections now for (gasp!) half a century, my profound ambivalence should tell you something.

My sense is that Macron hasn't closed the deal, Mélenchon has been hitting all the high notes lately, Fillon's sheer bull-headedness has kept him in contention, and Marine Le Pen has reverted to form, partly erasing the gains she had made in de-demonizing the party. But I just don't know how it's going to end. On Sunday we'll know. Brexit and Trump have taught me to expect the unexpected, but the possibility of an impending disaster is never easy to contemplate. And this could end in complete and utter disaster.

How's that for a pessimistic start to your day.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Critique of French Polling Methods

Political scientist Jean-Yves Dormagen criticizes the methods used by French pollsters, in particular their use of quotas based on gender, age, and socioeconomic status. All pollsters are obliged to "correct" their samples to compensate for non-randomness in survey responses, but Dormagen argues that the quotas employed in France are applied to categories that are too broad and unrepresentative.

So beware of accepting the poll rankings (currently Macron no. 1, Le Pen 2, Mélenchon 3, and Fillon 4) as definitive. Big surprises may be in store. I'm making no bets on the outcome. Still biting my nails.

The Last Roundup

There won't be a final debate before the first round, but there will be a program on France2 in which each of the 11 candidates will be interviewed for 15 minutes by 2 journalists (with 2 1/2 minutes additional for "droit de réponse"). It's an interesting gambit and strikes me as potentially more useful than yet another 11-way debate, but everything will depend on the ability of the journalists to get the candidates off their prepared talking points and into some sort of discussion. (This is not easy. I know: I've tried it with a few professional politicians, and avoiding any deviation into uncharted waters is what they excel at.) I'm not sure who will watch such a marathon, but there will probably be a large audience for the highlight reels, which could influence the final result with the race so close.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Elie Cohen Dismantles Pro-Frexit Arguments

This very good piece demonstrates why electing either Le Pen or Mélenchon would be a disaster.

Russian Meddling?

The Times has a report on purported Russian meddling in the French election. The goal seems more to defeat Macron rather than secure the election of one of the other three front-runners, all of whom--remarkable fact!--are friendly to Russia.

Philippot

If Marine Le Pen has changed the face of the FN, she has done it with the help of Florian Philippot, of whom Le Monde has an excellent profile this morning.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Response to Another Reader on Macron

In response to my previous post on Mélenchon, another reader writes:
I'm sure that I speak for many of your readers when I say I would appreciate a clear, affirmative presentation of the case for Macron on this blog sometime before the first round of voting. My sense from what you have written so far is that you support him more or less the way I do: faute de mieux, and with considerable foreboding.
The writer seems to want something I cannot provide: assurance that in marking his or her ballot for Macron, he or she will be doing "the right thing." We are in a moment of great uncertainty. No one can say for sure what "the right thing" is.

I am fairly confident that the programs of certain candidates are the wrong thing, however. Yesterday, I said why in the case of Mélenchon. It does not need saying why I think Le Pen's program is wrong: some of the reasons (her anti-European stance, her faith in protectionism and devaluation) are similar to the objections I raised against Mélenchon; others (national preference in hiring, hostility to minorities) are unique to her. Hamon, though personally and morally more appealing than either of those rivals, proposes a radical experiment in social and economic reform that I think would tip the balance against France in what I believe is a precarious early stage of recovery (see, e.g., this article on France's high-tech renaissance).

Macron would seek to push that recovery along by doing what centrist technocrats always do: making gestures friendly to business to improve the investment climate, spending money on education and R&D in areas that seem promising to young entrepreneurs with profiles similar to his own, and helping to position French firms to compete more successfully in the global economy by moving them up the value chain and shifting emphasis away from labor-intensive activities like autos and steel and toward industries where France enjoys a comparative advantage. To people who lose jobs he will offer retraining, which will be painful for some and ineffective for many. There will be pain in the future as there has been in the past. It is hard to predict how he will respond to those cries of pain. Compassion does not seem to be his long suit (I use the word "suit" advisedly, as he advertised the limits of his compassion when he told unemployed workers that the best way to afford a suit like his was to go to work). He will have to learn on the job to curb the asperities of his personality.

What he will not have to learn on the job is what it takes to engage in fruitful dialogue with other powerful economic actors. This is his milieu. Some of you hate this milieu. You don't like Davos men in expensive suits. You don't like successful exam-takers who make millions on their first flyer in the world of mergers and acquisitions just because having the right credentials and the right contacts put them in the right place at the right time. You don't like the way this social hierarchy reproduces itself by securing the best schooling for its sons and daughters.

I don't like these things either. But I do not see an alternative at the moment. Nor do I think this reality is the greatest horror, the most oppressive order, the world has ever known. The Google campus (or its French equivalent) may not be my idea of utopia, but neither does it represent a return to the dark satanic mills of old, as one might think from the hyperbolic rhetoric of candidates of the far left and far right, or even from the amorphous grumbling of the chattering classes about the ravages of "neoliberalism." With Macron the trains may not run exactly on time--that was a fascist promise, after all, to discipline society as one disciplines an army--but when they run off the rails, he will shake up the management of SNCF and follow up by appointing competent monitors to measure the progress of the new managers toward meeting his 14-point improvement program for better rail service. That is the kind of politician he is, for better or for worse.

With Macron you wont get les lendemains qui chantent, but you'll get to work more or less on time aujourd'hui et demain, and you'll need to keep getting to work until you're 65 or perhaps 67, because that's the way things are headed. Some of you won't be wanting to break out the champagne to celebrate prospects such as these. But I've been around a while and have stopped looking to politics for intoxication or even inspiration. Just keeping the train on the tracks is enough, even if it's fifteen minutes late. That I think Macron can manage; with the others a wreck is imminent.

Some of you think Macron won't fare any better with Germany or the CGT than Hollande did. I have more confidence in the German leadership, among whom many have recognized that something has to change and are looking for a French leader in whom they too have confidence to make the necessary adjustments. Regardless of whether Schulz or Merkel is the next chancellor, the Germans have signaled that Macron is the French leader they prefer to work with and, I'm reasonably sure, compromise with. So I have hope on that score. The CGT and the Right and Far Right and the Far Left at home will of course be looking to put spokes in Macron's wheels, but in this area (as opposed to others, such as foreign policy) he actually has acquired the requisite experience through his stewardship of the Macron and El Khomri laws. Despite his youth, he is one of the most experienced French politicians in dealing with the unending guerrilla warfare that is French domestic politics, and temperamentally he is better equipped for it than Valls and surpassed only by the wizened Juppé, whose career is over.

The writer suggests that I prefer Macron faute de mieux. Perhaps, but I think it's rather that of the choices on offer I prefer Macron to manage the world as it is, faute de pouvoir en imaginer un autre. Perhaps that failure of imagination is mine, but for now I think, alas, that Margaret Thatcher was right: There is no alternative. When one presents itself, I might consider voting for it. Macron is a manager, not a magus. But politics is the wrong place to look for magi.


Sunday, April 16, 2017

Response to a Reader on Why I Do Not Support Mélenchon

Yesterday, a reader wrote:

You suggest "My two chief desiderata are to preserve both the European Union and the French welfare state."

But Mélenchon ​ does not seem to pose a threat to the welfare state, and his opposition to the EU​ is ​based on the body's neoliberal leanings, ​not unreasonably so.

Otherwise, ​you've not been specific about your concerns. What is it specifically about the man's positions that bothers you? Perhaps this should be in a blog post.
This reaction is typical of some quarters of the left, so let me answer briefly.

Mélenchon does pose a threat to the welfare state, because he believes that it is enough to make redistributive demands without proposing a plan to manage the economy so as to generate the revenue needed to meet them. This was what left-wing politicians often did propose before the 1930s, back when the state's role in managing the economy was minimal. This is no longer the case today. One cannot simply decree that pensions should be increased, working hours reduced, the legal retirement age lowered, taxes on households decreased, nuclear power eliminated, etc., without explaining how you expect the economy to respond and how you might manage any adverse consequences. Mélenchon has nothing to say on these matters.

I do not like the term "neoliberalism," however useful it may be as shorthand on occasion. But if you think that the EU suffers from "neoliberal leanings" that would justify leaving it, you have to explain what France will do once it is no longer a member. Capitalism is not going to disappear if France withdraws from the EU; the global market is not going to evaporate; competition from low-wage states is not going to vanish; and financial institutions are not going to be more inclined to lend to states that run deficits far larger than permitted under the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. Mélenchon seems to believe that if France withdraws, it will be free to stimulate its economy at will and devalue its currency until its products become competitive. This is identical to Marine Le Pen's position, and it is in my view dead wrong. France's borrowing costs will rise, as will its trade deficit. Consumers will feel the pinch as the prices of imported goods, especially food and fuel, rise. Remember what happened to the Mitterrand government between 1981 and 1983. Most Socialists do; Mélenchon left the party because he thought his comrades were cowards; if only they had had a little more revolutionary fervor in their hearts, he thinks, things would have turned out differently. He's wrong about that.

Mélenchon appears to believe that he can run the economy by fiat, as Chavez, whom he admires, did in Venezuela. But harsh realities cannot be overcome by mere defiance. Mélenchon is good at enacting defiance rhetorically. I wonder how he will respond when the popular anger turns on him, as it surely will if he comes to power and he fails to deliver on his unrealistic promises.

Finally, I believe that Mélenchon is right when he says that France has more power to affect the course of the EU than it has realized in recent years. But there is no chance of deflecting Europe toward a better equilibrium by confronting the Germans with non-negotiable demands, as Mélenchon intends to do, and by telling them that they are fools for not seeing the wisdom of the course Mélenchon proposes as an alternative. Opponents can be persuaded, but not by making empty threats. Mélenchon's stance toward the EU is like that of a child who threatens to hold his breath until his mother does what he wants. He will turn blue in the face, but eventually he will have to start breathing again, and his mother will still be standing there with her arms folded.

Friday, April 14, 2017

Fillon Pulls a Bait and Switch on His Benefactor?

It's really too much. Médiapart says there is reason to doubt that Fillon returned to Robert Bourgi the same suits from Arnys he was given. Did he pull a bait and switch?

Selon des spécialistes d’Arnys sollicités par Mediapart, les ensembles de la marque sont normalement accompagnés d’une griffe visible en transparence moirée dans la doublure du vêtement. Ils sont également accompagnés de deux étiquettes siglées avec, écrites à la main, les mentions du propriétaire du vêtement et sa date de fabrication. La marque vante par ailleurs régulièrement son savoir-faire français. L’hypothèse selon laquelle un costume Arnys puisse porter la mention “made in Holland” paraît, dès lors, hautement improbable. C’est pourquoi la justice a engagé des vérifications.
Flabbergasting if true.

Jamais Deux Sans Trois: France Slouches Toward the Unknown

When I woke up this morning, I reached for my tablet and was confronted with a bulletin from Le Monde announcing that the top four candidates are converging toward a dead heat on April 23. There is no longer any certainty about what the final round will look like, and all the momentum is with Mélenchon. Fortunately, I will be away from my computer for the rest of the day. I need a little respite from the anxiety.

At Harvard recently, the French political analyst Dominique Moïsi evoked the expression "Jamais deux sans trois" and asked whether France would fit into the Brexit-Trump-? scenario or the more heartening Austria-Netherlands-? scenario. With its usual orneriness, France seems headed for something sui generis: a match between populisms of the left and right, not yet seen anywhere. Sans pareil.

But for Americans who wish that Clinton-Trump had been Sanders-Trump and believe that Sanders would have emerged victorious, make no mistake: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is no Bernie Sanders. And he's no bumbling Jeremy Corbyn either. Since he seemed out of the running for so long, his program has received very little scrutiny, and with strict equal time limits now in force on the media and no more debates before April 23, it's unlikely that late-coming Mélenchon enthusiasts will receive much in the way of an antidote to the heady elixir they've been drinking. This election is veering into unknown territory.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Mélenchon, totalitarian

Laurent Berger, the head of France's largest trade union, the CFDT, said today that Mélenchon has a "rather totalitarian vision" of government. I'm not sure that this approach will work any better than the Remain campaign's approach in the UK, but the language reflects the high anxiety that is now afflicting the entire political class from Hollande on down. They were confident of beating Le Pen; they're not as confident of beating Mélenchon.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Le Boulanger, La Boulangère, et le Mitron

Those who know their French revolutionary history will appreciate this story (and will catch the allusion in the title of this post). It seems that the boss of Les Boulangeries Paul is the father of the boss of La Maison Ladurée, the home of the chic (and expensive) macarons that one takes as gifts to the hosts of Parisian dîners en ville. Father and son do not see eye to eye on politics, the dad being an outspoken Fillon supporter and the son not. Hence;

« Le président de la Maison Ladurée ne s’associe en aucun cas à l’annonce politique faite ce matin par M. Francis Holder. » Dans la grande maison des macarons, le message est clair : « La Maison Ladurée respecte la liberté de penser de l’ensemble de ses collaborateurs, qu’elle soit politique ou religieuse. Cela relève de la sphère privée. »

Mom stands with her boy and not with her husband.

Mélenchon on RTL This Morning

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, latecomer to the tête de peloton, was on RTL this morning and acquitted himself admirably. This is the setting in which I find him most effective: not alone on the platform, in the flesh or in hologram, but with a decent sparring partner whose blows he can duck and return with a flurry of punches. JLM's great gift, compared with his rivals, is that he can actually think on his feet. He seems to converse rather than return prepared talking points, and his language is rich even when improvised. Agree or disagree with him on the issues--and I emphatically disagree on many--he comes across as a thoughtful human being, not an automaton. That already puts him streets ahead of the others. Alas.

The Politics of Memory

Regarding Marine Le Pen's statement about the Vél' d'Hiv', please read Henry Rousso, THE expert on the politics of memory.

Monday, April 10, 2017

Nail-Biting Time

I am beginning to get seriously worried about this election. It is now possible to envision any combination of the four front-runners in the final, and most of the scenarios would have entirely unpalatable outcomes from my point of view.

My two chief desiderata are to preserve both the European Union and the French welfare state. Le Pen and Mélenchon threaten the former, Fillon the latter. On the other hand, I wouldn't be averse to a measured transition toward a Sixth Republic and a redistribution of a reasonable portion of powers from the executive to the legislative--not as a panacea but rather as a recognition of the flaws of the monarchical presidency. That said, I have no confidence whatsoever in Mélenchon as the steward of such a transition. And to elect Fillon in the state of turpitude in which he finds himself would be to deepen the distrust in which government is already held.

Although for me, therefore, There Is No Alternative to Macron, I can't say I'm happy with his campaign. When asked to specify his differences with the Hollande regime, he named two. First, he had quit the government, but this owed more to his ambition than to any difference of principle (a fact that his answer blithely left unacknowledged even as a possibility), and second, Hollande would not let him go as far as he thought necessary, which only reinforced the critiques of his opponents that his presidency would be Hollande bis. By this point he should have been able to articulate a more detailed critique of Hollande's approach to governing, even if he shares the president's general philosophy of what needs to be done (which is debatable, while the failure of the approach is not).

In addition, though capable of being affable, Macron has come across recently as a sort of Valls lite, perpetually pissed off about something or other for no good reason. While it's true that the picador style of many French interviewers would be enough to irritate even the most patient of men, Hamon, whose detailed incoherencies should require far more defending than Macron's vague ambiguities, handles even hostile questioners with dignified calm and aplomb, much more to my liking than Macron's annoyed and annoying hauteur. But perhaps Hamon's dismal place at the back of the pack is yet further proof that my instincts are out of sync with those of le bon peuple.

So, like Brexit and the US election, this one looks as though it's going to be decided in the home stretch, and I don't like the look of things at all as the field rounds the final bend.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Macron et les 100 Jours

One thing that has worried me about the Macron candidacy is that I have little sense of how he will govern once elected. Until now he has occupied only subaltern positions in government. What would he do as chief executive.

Two weeks ago, a visitor to Harvard who claimed to know him well said he would press immediately for labor-market reform and school reform. Now, it seemed to me that these are two hot-button issues, likely to bring masses of people into the streets, as indeed labor-market reform did under Hollande. So I asked, Wouldn't this risk a repeat of 1995, when the Chirac-Juppé proposal to reform the pension system, which enjoyed nearly universal elite support, brought masses into the street and paralyzed the country for a month, leading to eventual retreat and dooming the Chirac presidency? The answer was that Macron believed in the "theory of the 100 days," that what doesn't get done in that initial period, when the incoming president's mandate is fresh and strong, doesn't get done at all.

But in today's JDD, Macron says the opposite. Not only does he not believe in the "100-day theory," he explicitly says that the theory led to the failure of previous presidencies. Of course, he (and I) may be wrong, or it may be that circumstances are different now and that a quick strike would succeed while a more gradualist approach will fail. But I was reassured that, whatever the truth of the matter, Macron had pondered the problem and will proceed deliberately rather than impulsively.

Marine and Marion Patch Things Up

When the party is a family business, family squabbles become political. But Marine and Marion have patched things up--or now. Still, this potential cleavage within the FN is one to watch, because the Marion faction--traditionalist, Catho, gay-unfriendly--is more compatible with the Fillon faction of LR than the more "modernist" Marine-Florian Philippot faction. The future recomposition of the right, if there is one, will depend on how this shakes out.

Saturday, April 8, 2017

The Nation Covers the French Election: Alduy, Bell, Goldhammer

The Nation's coverage of the French election has been extensive. I'm honored to be included alongside Cécile Alduy and David Bell.

Friday, April 7, 2017

The Alt Right Goes for Le Pen

Interesting article on alt right online support for Marine Le Pen. (h/t SM).

The Mélenchonian Moment

Everything comes to him who waits. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has not exactly been waiting patiently, but he has persevered in his mode à la Passionaria for quite some time now, and he has finally had his breakthrough. Oddly for this contemner of the media, his moment came thanks to his gift for the televised debate. He roughed up Marine Le Pen on the question of crèches, entangling her in a contradiction between her defense à outrance of laïcité as the supreme republican (and anti-Muslim) value and her equally tenacious defense of France's Christian roots. This has apparently seduced a part of le peuple de gauche away from Hamon's robot tax and universal basic income and 32-hour week. Nothing mobilizes the left like a good religious war, or war on religion, compared to which all this folderol about an end to work seems a trifle unreal.

Of course, extirpating baby Jesus from his manger in the mairie is not going to put steelworkers back to work at Florange, but an 11-way debate is not likely to turn into a seminar in economics. It's more like a joust in a bumper car concession at the amusement park, and Mélenchon's thrust visibly unseated Le Pen and left him master of the stage, free to zip about in his bumper car smacking up against what Donald Trump might call his "low-energy" rivals. Hamon seems to have been the principle victim, as the polls show Mélenchon jumping up toward Fillon territory and Hamon slipping another notch or two toward oblivion.

Although JLM remains some distance from his dreamed-of match-up with MLP in the final, he just might pull off the exploit of surpassing Fillon and relegating both mainstream parties to the rear of le peloton. Et alors? as Fillon might say. But while Mélenchon nurses his dream, I briefly envision the nightmare of a Mélenchon-Le Pen face-off and say, By God, could France possibly come to this? I think not. Meanwhile, Macron revealed the names of some of En Marche!'s candidates for the legislatives, including Jean-Michel Fauvergue, the supercop former boss of the RAID, which made the assault on Coulibaly holed up in the Hyper Cacher. This very young candidate certainly has a way of enticing older, more seasoned men into his orbit from all walks of life, from high finance to high police. Another kind of talent, less visible on TV than Mélenchon's but essential if Macron wishes to celebrate his 40th birthday in the Elysée.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

The Molten State of French Politics

There is a fluidity about today's political scene that is unlike any other political era in recent memory. This is exemplified by an article in today's Le Monde. The question is what the two parties formerly known as "mainstream" or "parties of government" will do if, as seems likely, their candidates do not make it to the second round of the presidential election. The legislatives loom large in their thinking. This is where they must defend their turf. But they also need to regroup and rebuild, and there careers are open to talent ... and ruthlessness and infidelity. Thus we learn that François Baroin, who had made a pact with Sarkozy to become his PM only to be left hanging when Sarkozy lost, who then flipped to Fillon, only to be left hanging when Fillon had the rug pulled out from under him, now sees himself as a potential prime minister under Macron, a position he will secure by leading the right in the legislatives, winning a majority, and thus confronting Macron as a rival who cannot be brushed aside.

Meanwhile, Laurent Wauquiez, another young man who has never been able to conceal the boundlessness of his ambition, plans to follow in Sarkozy's footsteps by seizing control of the party apparatus in preparation for a 2022 presidential run.

On the left, things are more dire, and Cambadélis has been reduced to measures that look rather desperate, like demanding loyalty oaths of his minions. But loyalty to what? Hamonism has not caught fire either within the ranks of the party or in the electorate at large. The candidate himself, while personally appealing, has not imposed his authority but rather become the figurehead of a cult, which yearns for change without being capable of proposing anything resembling a strategy to achieve it.

The Sandersistas and Occupiers and Indignados and Nuit Deboutistes and Hamonistes of the world, for all the youthful energy they have brought into politics, have not yet found the key to organizing and disciplining it, even in Spain, where they have come closest to institutionalizing the insurgent spirit. Unless I miss my guess, Hamon is not the man to make this happen in France. I don't really see anyone in France who is. Between the apparatchik Cambadélis, the renegade Mélenchon, the floundering Hamon, and the quisling Valls, the left has nowhere to turn. But as always there remains the faith that something will turn up.

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

The Fate of French Socialism

My latest, at The Nation.

Yesterday's Debate

I missed yesterday's debate because I was in Toronto lecturing on the French election:


The press accounts and video clips suggest I didn't miss much, but if anyone has any thoughts on what transpired, please post in comments. For the rest of the week I will be at a conference in Madison on the EU, so posting may be slow or non-existent.

Monday, April 3, 2017

Grunberg on the Breakup of the PS


L’ensemble de ces évolutions vont incontestablement dans le sens d’une clarification idéologique et politique à gauche. Mais, comme il était prévisible, cette clarification, que le PS d’Epinay ne pouvait effectuer pour des raisons liées à son modèle génétique, ne peut s’opérer désormais qu’en dehors de lui et contre lui. D’où son éclatement.
Cette clarification aura pour conséquence principale la disparition de la gauche comme agrégat pertinent pour le fonctionnement de notre système politique. Aucune recomposition ne rapprochera Macron de Mélenchon ni les sociaux-libéraux des radicaux. Ils ne gouverneront pas ensemble.

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Latest Polls

The latest polls, all taken since the first televised debate, show the race settling into a two-person contest, Le Pen vs. Macron, with Macron in the lead in several polls. Mélenchon appears to be pulling ahead of Hamon, but polling for JLM in 2012 also showed him doing better than the final result. As usual, polls should be treated with extreme caution, especially these.


Saturday, April 1, 2017

James Traub on Mélenchon

James Traub has a good article on Mélenchon in Foreign Policy, painting him as the candidate of romantic revolutionary nostalgia.

What has happened to Hamon is a pity. After delivering the best speech of his life and perhaps the best speech of this campaign, he had a lackluster debate performance and began to sink in the polls. Mélenchon now seems likely to finish ahead of him. But there is much more to build on in Hamon's version of ecosocialism, for all its flaws, than in Mélenchon's.