Sunday, April 2, 2017

Latest Polls

The latest polls, all taken since the first televised debate, show the race settling into a two-person contest, Le Pen vs. Macron, with Macron in the lead in several polls. Mélenchon appears to be pulling ahead of Hamon, but polling for JLM in 2012 also showed him doing better than the final result. As usual, polls should be treated with extreme caution, especially these.


2 comments:

Cincinna said...

Is there any particular reason why you, nor any other french media outlets, do not report on the results of polls by the Canadian polling firm, FILTERIS?
Their daily polls, and tracking polls, have consistently shown François Fillon coming in second, with Marine Le Pen a very strong first, and Macron in third place, and dropping
Their methodology is different from others, and their accuracy has been spot on. They correctly predicted Sarko losing to Hollande, and predicted the elimination of Juppé in the LP primary. They predicted the election of Donald Trump.
They have been predicting a big bump for Mélanchon, which, after this evening' s debate, seems highly likely.
I watched the entire 3 1/2 hour debate online, and JLM stood out. He is clear and consist, even though I disagree with him on most
everything.
Filteris has been showing the slow and steady decline of Hamon, and Macron, Fillon very much still in the game, and MLP as holding steady, and keeping her number one spot, apparently rising. I've been studying Macron's appearances, both in French and English, and he doesn't come across as a leader, or a winner. He appears very young with that deer caught in the headlights look. As my french friends would say, "he has no peps". He doesn't present himself as a strong, dynamic determined man with strong character.
Time will tell, and I'm watching the emergence of a FF and MLP runoff.


Art Goldhammer said...

You mean this Filteris: http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/03/election-presidentielle-filteris-la-pseudo-enquete-electorale-a-prendre-avec-des-pincettes_5105106_4355770.html

Attention, il ne s’agit en réalité pas d’enquêtes portant sur les intentions de vote. Comme l’indique Filteris dans son onglet « méthodologie », ses études mesurent les « perceptions, avis et opinions » positives et négatives « librement exprimés sur le Web et les réseaux sociaux ». A l’aide d’un algorithme, dont les calculs ne sont pas exprimés, Filteris attribue ensuite un score à chaque candidat.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/03/election-presidentielle-filteris-la-pseudo-enquete-electorale-a-prendre-avec-des-pincettes_5105106_4355770.html#DrJ7e4str6kZH0l4.99

This is a buzz meter, not a poll. And predicting Sarko's loss to Hollande was hardly an exploit. Everyone did.