Friday, May 5, 2017

A Hypothetical for Your Consideration

Suppose Marine Le Pen doesn't want to win this election. Then the events of the last two weeks would make sense. The retreat from EU withdrawal and euro abandonment consequent upon the wine-watering choice of Dupont-Aignan as prime minister-designate, the bizarrely aggressive debate performance, the disastrous nomination of Jalkh to head the party (how could MLP not have known of his Holocaust denial)--all these things make no sense for a candidate who wants to win but have a ready explanation if she wants to lose.

The FN has always been the family business, and a good business it was. Election would quickly spoil the brand. The party would have to take responsibility, and Le Pen surely knows how hard it would be to deliver on any of her promises. She knows she has zero chance of obtaining a working majority in the Assembly. So why spoil a good thing? By losing, she keeps herself pristine as leader of those who refuse to compromise with "the system" (Mélenchon will be a robust challenger, but he has been a minister, hence is already tainted). Really, there's no upside in winning. She'd probably face violent protests even before taking office. Why shoulder the burden of bloody repression when you can parlay failure into a healthy income stream?

Look at Donald Trump's dilemma. Profits or power? He's now got all the headaches of power. Of course he can use it to multiply his profits. But that's because he already has a tentacular private-sector empire. Marine's business will do better if she can stay out of office. And she was losing anyway. So why not shut the door on any outside chance of victory? Behave like a Neanderthal in debate. Confuse your supporters by reneging on your signature policy proposals. Keep your internal rivals guessing about what you're up to.

The only danger for Le Pen is that she will lose so badly that the internal enemies will see their chance and take their shot. That means primarily Marion Maréchal Le Pen, but she's still very young. MLP probably figures it was worth the risk. She's playing to lose. Maybe. Jus' sayin' ....

4 comments:

Massilian said...

I agree. But she always knew she would loose. And she didn't plan a nice way to loose. A clever strategic way to loose. She will poorly loose. She will loose "en catastrophe" in what appears a succession of political mistake and these will weaken her position in the future.
She is a very bad poker player. She doesn't know how to play with a poor game. She doesn't know how to loose with minimal cost. She is like people who don't know how to fall and who just crash and hurt themselves badly because they remained stiff.
So she doesn't loose, she doesn't fall, she bites the dust. In front of her own family. They will outcast her, or kill her and stuff her.
She's history. I bet you she won't run in 2022.

Anonymous said...

I recall in America they kept saying that Trump wanted to lose. I don't think that they were even wrong: I won't say that Trump wanted to lose, but that he didn't think that he would win, and that he was mostly in the race to enjoy and profit from free publicity.

Marine Le Pen desperately wants to be president. It has probably taken her longer than others to realize that she was losing this race. (An absurd self-confidence is required to run in the first place: look at Macron!) Occam's razor says that her mistakes have simply been mistakes, in part motivated by the fact that she realized that she was losing and decided to try to shake up the race with some erratic moves. Fortunately these seem to have failed, and they may well hurt the FN long term.

I hope that the FN loses badly, but it isn't going anywhere, unless its message is completely absorbed by the mainstream right (which would not be a good thing). Even a catastrophic score for her (say 35%) will be much better than what her father managed in 2002. We haven't seen the last of Marine Le Pen.

Anonymous said...

She knew she'd lose. She didn't have to do this.
The Plantu cartoon where you see her father facing Macron - that's what we saw, but with a creepy smile on top. It makes no sense, not even if she wanted to insure a defeat and taint her party after all her DE-demonization work.

Alexandra Marshall said...

I am of the belief that neither she nor anyone in her cracker barrel family business is a master of 12 dimensional chess. They are doing their best and their best is vulgar and definitely not ready for prime time. (Until MMLP takes over--she's young but she's deadly.) I'd believe MLP didn't want to win on an unconscious level only. She is DYING to run with the real elite. Look at how thirsty she is on her overseas trips.