Sunday, May 7, 2017

Le Pire ne passe pas

If you'll forgive me for expressing an opinion, On a gagné! The worst has not happened. Le Pen's re-demonization of her party in the final 2 weeks ensured that Macron would do even better than had been predicted from the beginning. Now the real work begins. I wish the new president the best of luck. Stay tuned for the legislatives.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ha! The polls *were* wrong. This is a great relief, although the upcoming legislatives are almost as much a crapshoot as the first round of the presidential election.

Bernard said...

No the polls were not wrong. Analysing them carefully allowed me and others (myos) to project close to 65.

My political forecast for the legislatives: en marche will win a majority in parliament. The FN and les Insoummis will be crushed and the PS that the frondeurs highjacked will go the way of Corbyn's labour.

2 political lessons:
- it's not done till it's done. That's for LR.
- treason is not a rewarding activity. That's for Hamon and Melenchon.
and another for the road: la nature a horreur du vide.

Anonymous said...

There will be a screening tomorrow night on TF1 of "Dans Les Coulisses D'une Victoria", a documentary of the last months of the Macron campaign. There was a snippet shown a few minutes ago on TF1 showing Macron with his closest staff laying down the line, "In 15 days you can sleep all day, but now everyone focuses on nothing else but the end of the campaign. Do not be arrogant with journalists, because the balloon can deflate at any moment." (My rough translation.)

My sense of Macron is that he is very hard-headed about what he wants to achieve, yet he also has dexterity in front of his "concitoyens", see the way he took the heat when he went to the Whirlpool factory and exchanged conversation with the very angry workers. In that video Macron gave the microphone to the workers so they could "sound off" --a very deft way defusing the situation. Notwithstanding, he has the intellectual capacity to splice the fine points of policy, although Le Pen was hardly his equal during the debate with respect to this aspect of governance. My favorite moment in the debate was when he gently explained that SFR and Alstom are two different companies and that they make different products. Hopefully, the strength of his personality will bring people towards him, such that the reasonable remnants of the PS and the LR --Le Guen and Le Maire, for instance, will assist in establishing the new party, rather than seeking to weaken it, as Valarie Pecresse seems determined to do, now that the institutional core of LR lives in the Ice Age.

May Macron be just as determined in the campaign for the legislatives as he has been for his own election.

Vive la France! Vive aussi l'Union Européen!

Alexandra Marshall said...

Anyone willing to engage in some totally irresponsible PM speculation?

Anonymous said...

Brigitte Trogneux.

bert said...

Good news.
Margin of victory on the high side of expectations (turnout, not so much).

I don't know how much of this you saw in France, but the live feed that was broadcast to international audiences for his victory speech included a ten-minute opening sequence in which he stood unsuspecting at the podium, spooling back and forth through the autocue, a makeup girl dabbing at him with a powder puff, as the studio anchors awkwardly filled in on voiceover to cover the silence. When he started speaking it came across as very downbeat.
I'm in London, which might as well be a world away - I'd be crazy to imagine my reading of the mood as anything other than a subjective impression. But the tone struck me as jarringly flat. And the overwhelming sense was that he looked very, very young.

Not young in a way that meets the moment.
Not in a good way at all.
Sorry to be a downer. Maybe things will look better after a night's sleep.

bert said...

PM: NKM.

bert said...

Unsurprisingly, there's video:
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/05/07/resultat-election-presidentielle-2017-oups-macron-ne-savait-p_a_22074193/

"Si je passe en ce moment sur toutes les chaînes en disant ça j'aurai l'air intelligent."

Could've been worse I suppose.

Anonymous said...

Jean Yves LeDrian = well-respected on the left and the right.
Or a state company's CEO /former CEO. (can't provide any name, don't know who they are)
(myos)

Anonymous said...

PM: Gerard Collomb, PS, Mayor of Lyon and Macron TV surrogate.

JCW

atomymous said...

PM: I would bet my right arm it will be a woman.

Massilian said...

I think Sylvie Goulard could be a good choice.

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Anonymous said...

Who il Sylvie Goulard ?
(myos)

Lapinot said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lapinot said...

He's up to 66.1% in the 'quasi-définitifs' results. It couldn't have gone much better, I suppose.

A small (petty) pleasure: seeing members of the media who covered the election with more enthusiasm than accuracy now telling us that he's a younger president than 'Napoleon', and I'm pretty sure they don't realise they're talking about the nephew.

They seem to have provided a mini-boom for bookmakers, who apparently received a lot of bets from people who still thought Le Pen had a chance.

Alexandra Marshall said...

I too think it'll be Sylvie. Needs to be a woman. Good she's an MEP given how much will need to happen on the EU level for anything Macron proposes can go anywhere. She was a campaign surrogate as well. Can't be an LR Pecresse type as he's explicitly said he doesn't want to let his baby party get taken over by old heads. Makes me think NKM might even be too been there-done that. Lagarde would be a huge mistake if only because two finance people at once would probably cause a majority of French heads to spontaneously combust.