Thursday, May 24, 2007

Electoral Geography

No student of French politics can fail to have been struck by the electoral geography of the presidential election. Eastern France is a sea of blue (French electoral colorimetery is the reverse of the US: blue is right, red is left), while the Socialists have been pushed back largely into redoubts in the west and southwest (some of them with a traditional Catholic heritage and therefore formerly likely to vote for the right). It would be interesting to overlay the map of votes with the map of density of immigration, but it is clear from simple examination that many areas in which Sarkozy ran particularly well were areas where the proportion of immigrants and descendants of immigrants is quite high. If anyone knows of a good comparative map, please let me know.

In the meantime, there is this intersting article by Pascal Perrineau of CEVIPOF, which discusses, among other things, Sarkozy's breathrough in traditional working class areas.

3 comments:

gregory brown said...

I think a more marked development, with the potential for a more enduring impact, is the continuation of a trend that began at least in 1995, of urban, professional middle-class voters who are not civil servants, voting for the left (especially if one inclues first-round Bayrou, second-round Royal voters). Royal almost carried Paris in absolute votes (and did win a majority of arrondissements), handily carried Bordeaux (which has never had a left municipal government or a majority of its deputies from the left), and held onto those cities in the North with larger middle-class, professional populations.

In effect, Sarkozy's campaign pushed a lot of people who might have agreed with his stated economic policies away from not only him, but -- to judge from some polling for the legislatives -- from the right. There are a urban circumscriptions in Paris (14th arr, 12th arr, 10th arr) and in Bordeaux, Marseille, Dijon, Lyon etc which could go from left to right, even though the left is likely to lose seats nationally.

As for overlaying with a "map of immigration," that would require us to define what is meant by "immigration." Do you mean non-white voters?

Anonymous said...

An interesting map to "overlay" is precisely the map of Paris. It is blue in the arrondissements with the least immigration (West) and red with the most (East)....

Anonymous said...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^

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