Saturday, December 1, 2007

Attitudes toward Suburban Youth, Sarkozy

A new OpinionWay poll, taken since the incident in Villiers-le-Bel, reveals stark, if unsurprising, differences between voters who backed the 4 leading presidential candidates. Why do youths run amok in the suburbs? Lack of parental control is cited by at least 80 percent of voters for Sarkozy, Bayrou, and Le Pen but by only 56 percent of Royal voters (still a majority, though). By contrast, unemployment and precarious employment are cited by 73 percent of Royal voters and 62 percent of Bayrou voters but by only 38 percent of Sarko voters and 26 of Le Pen backers. Similar differences can be seen with respect to "judicial lenience" and "immigration" as factors.

On Sarkozy's recent press interview concerning purchasing power, only 29 percent of Royal voters found him convincing, compared with 66 percent of Bayrou voters, 97 percent of those who backed Sarko himself, and 85 percent of FN voters.

The relatively high score among Bayrou voters suggests that Sarko is holding the allegiance of the center, while he is more than holding his own core constituency.