Friday, September 19, 2008

The Contenders

OK, here's the way the factions line up going into the Socialist Party congress. In one corner Martine Aubry, who has managed somehow to contrive an unnatural alliance with the Fabiusiens, led by Claude Bartolone, and much of the DSK/Reconstructeur group, including J.-C. Cambadelis. In another Bertrand Delanoë and François Hollande, with the Jospinien rump. In a third corner, Ségolène Royal and the mayors of Ligne Claire (Collomb, Valls, et al.). In a fourth corner, the "left" of the party: Emmanuelli, Hamon, etc. Turning around in circles in the middle of the ring, Pierre Moscovici, who has been abandoned by his troops. On his blog today he describes himself as "perplexed."

What will happen? If Aubry and Delanoë work out a compromise and join forces to stop Royal, they could win. Otherwise, she wins. But none of these leaders really control their troops, so no matter who wins, nobody wins. The whole thing remains as much in flux as ever. Clear?

2 comments:

gregory brown said...

The last time I recall a party congress this wide open was in 94 when Rocard got dumped, so I'm wondering if Art, or anyone else, can offer an explanation of how the General Secretary is actually chosen?

Its not a one-delegate, one-vote election at the congress, is it? And is a candidate required to win a majority, which may necessity subsequent ballots (as would have been the case in the primary in 06) or a plurality (which would seem to favor Royal, right?).

Vertigo said...

Not sure where to put this but in today's senate election the PS won 23 seats and the UMP lost 10.
Maybe things aren't that bad for the PS? :/