Thursday, November 27, 2008

Fissures

Ségolène Royal told supporters yesterday that the objective was now 2012. But Vincent Peillon, who probably would have become de facto party leader if she had won her bid against Martine Aubry, thinks that the objective is now to rebuild the Socialist Party. Is this a mere difference of emphasis or a real difference of priorities? As we have seen repeatedly in recent months, there is no real solidity to intraparty alliances in the PS. Individuals calculate their own interests and correlate these were their perception of the party's interests. The results of Tuesday's elections have now precipitated a series of recalculations. In any case, Ségo needs more than the support of party caciques. In particular, she needs a brain trust to help her shape her positions on the issues, feed the press, and devise strategies to keep her in the public eye. Will Peillon want to be part of that operation? His best shot may now lie elsewhere, and Aubry, if she wants to isolate Ségo, as she undoubtedly does, will be reaching out to people like him, Julien Dray, Manuel Valls, and Aurélie Filipetti. Watch which way they jump to get an early read on Ségo's future.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

While I concur with the essence of this post, I will note that for many people, including many who were fond of him, Manuel Valls has just sent himself in a corner of shame few people will be willing to get him out of.
I don't know why he let his rhetoric in the past week get that hysterical and offensive but I doubt that's one you will see in Aubry's team.

Leo said...

On the issue of rebuilding the party, Peillon is close to Ségolène. Wednesday night on television, as he was debating with Cambadelis, he forcefully made the point that a modern party wide opened to society was necessary for the Socialists to succeed while Cambadelis insisted that the PS should remain "un parti de militants". But of course, now that Ségolène is out of the way, Aubry could very well become a modernizer herself. I haven't heard a clear position from her so far.