Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Socialist Geography

This map of the geographical distribution of votes by PS militants for the various motions shows a surprising number of départements in which Benoît Hamon came out on top. If anyone can explain the inner logic of this highly variegated map, I'd be glad to hear your thoughts.

8 comments:

kirkmc said...

I like the color scheme - no blue departments, only red to fuschia... :-)

Kirk

Unknown said...

I think the trail was blazed by the various American polling sites such as fivethirtyeight.com, which had to come up with colors to indicate various degrees of "leaning to Obama" or "leaning to McCain." Some creative use was made of the HTML palette. We are no longer a red/blue nation but rather divided among lighter shades of pale, as the song goes.

steph allies said...

A beginning of analysis

http://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/121108/avant-le-congres-du-ps-plongee-dans-le-vote-des-militants

Unknown said...

Thanks, but I have yet to persuade myself that the 9 euro subscription fee for Mediapart is worth it. Could you summarize a few key points?

Anonymous said...

This map seems to defy logic : for instance why would Brittany, so remote from Parisianism, become a fief of Delanoë ?

A possible explanation could be in the connection between these results and color shade of the local baron(s).

For instance, the Landes is Emmanueli territory and he certainly put his weight behind Hamon. This could be true in other areas...and if it is, it means it is more important to control the local party machine, than to appeal to individual militants

Unknown said...

Alain,
Thanks. That's an interesting suggestion.

kirkmc said...

The more I think about this, the more it seems to be a red-state/blue-state thing. Because there are no red or blue "states", not when you look at county maps of the US election.

Here, it's just that one candidate got a few more votes than another. If you think that the majority of the (mere) 120,000 voters were in the big cities and metropolitan areas, that means that, for example, in Brittany there were only a few _hundred_ voters per department. Maybe it was gay activists that got out the vote for Delanoë? Maybe he was only ahead by one vote; the map doesn't show that.

I think one should look at the actual numbers to see what they mean than be swayed by some pretty shades of red...

Kirk

Unknown said...

Arthur,

Please allow me to give you a hint. Take a look at the geographical strength of the communist party in the sixties and seventies. You might find an explanation to the Hamon and Aubry results there, notwithstanding alin_q explanation of the south west which I suspect to be correct as well.