Friday, July 17, 2009

Manipulating Opinion?

It seems that the Elysée has been paying for opinion polls whose results may or may not have been published in the press. The Socialists are alleging that Sarko financed the polls and then made them available to Le Figaro in order to show that he was doing well. The polling firm OpinonWay denies the charges and says that the published polls were not the ones it did for the Elysée.

So, to sum up, the PS alleges that Sarko was polling the public in order to persuade the same public that it liked him better than it actually did like him, whereas OpinionWay is claiming that the polls it did for the media weren't necessarily telling the same story as the polls it did for the Elysée.

I guess it's a good thing I don't put much stock in the polls.

1 comment:

FrédéricLN said...

True ...

OpinionWay is a specific kind of opinion poll : not representative samples, but a web-managed panel (looking like Zogby's or others). It is more effective than classical samples to monitor opinion changes (as you keep the same people and see how they change their mind), not for base surveys on specific topics (as representativeness is questionable).

OpinionWay results are usually published in the right-wind national daily newspaper Le Figaro.

OpinionWay is considered to have been embedded in the Sarkozy presidential campaign. The accounts of the Sarkozy campaign (Journal Officiel, 27 juillet 2007) include, at "Enquêtes et sondages" (Surveys and polls) : 527,800 euros = just 4 months of the 2008 Opinionway bills to L'Elysée (one of this surveys, Politoscope, costed 392,288 E in 2008, la Cour des Comptes says).

FrédéricLN, aka a survey expert...