Friday, December 17, 2010

Ni pute ni soumise

So, Fadela Amara will also throw in her lot with Borloo. Could Sarkozy's renomination of Fillon turn out to be his greatest blunder? By casting Borloo out into the cold after raising him up as a potential prime minister, Sarko may have created a monster. Borloo is a popular politician (for reasons that escape me, to be sure--I've never quite penetrated the secret of his charm). He has wasted no time in building a party around himself and his cult of personality, and he has attracted a couple of the flashier embodiments of the ex-Sarkozyan ouverture. Lest anyone forget, Bayrou attracted a lot of votes in the first round of 2007 by being neither Sarkozy nor Ségolène. Borloo might well be positioned to do the same. The tout sauf Sarkozy vote could well be stronger in 2012 than it was in 2007, and that might be enough to propel Borloo past the candidate of the left, especially is she is Royal or Aubry. What is more, Sarkozy's first-round score is almost certain to be smaller, since the FN appears to be rising from the dead. So we could have a very interesting first-round scenario in 2012, a three-way race with a highly unpredictable outcome. Watch this space for further developments.

6 comments:

brent said...

Or four-way, if EE/les Verts manage to pull themselves together ...?

Mr Punch said...

Or even five-way, because if it gets to four then the FN could approach being a real factor. Unlikely, but....

Arun said...

Art, tu vas un peu vite en besogne, as they say. The election is still a year and a half away. It's way too early to be engaging in this kind of speculation. At this point in the 2002 race J-P Chevènement was at 14% in the polls and Le Pen in single digits. As for Borloo, his popularity is superficial. He doesn't have a political base and picking off a couple of ex-Sarkozy diversity ministers isn't going to change that.

massilian said...

IMHO, according to polls if Sarkozy doesn't stand a chance on the second round whatever candidate from the left he faces, he still should get confortably to the second round with 26-28% of the votes. His difficult problem will then be to get support from the other candidates from the right. If Borloo is candidate and successfuly weakens Beyrou and Villepin (et al) in the first round there is no doubt Borloo would bring his support to Sarkozy on the second round. And even possibly save him. Becoming his new prime minister after the elections. The "friendly" eviction of Borloo from the government might not be a "blunder" at all but Sarkozy's best "submarine" manoeuvre.

Anonymous said...

Like Massilian, I'm certain Borloo is in cahoots with Sarkozy: they've realized UMP has a problem for the second round - not enough voters to transfer their vote to Sarkozy. If Borloo ranks high enough with about 10% in the first round, he kicks Villepin to the curb by taking from his voter base and of course calls for an UMP vote in the 2nd round because that's his "family" (he says "famille politique").
Presto magic: Sarkozy has his "preserve of votes" for the 2nd round!

If the "centrist" candidate were Bayrou (who's been hospitalized after accusing Yann Barthès, a political funny character, of lying... except Barthès was right) or Villepin, they would call on not voting Sarkozy.
In 2007, if I'm not mistaken, the center split 40% UMP, 40% no vote, 20% left; the left is hoping that some of the non-voters would switch to the left, which is thinkable only if the centrist candidate is not Borloo.

In addition, Borloo, based on reports by friends who worked in his ministère, is a great guy who works on the topic he's been given but is totally unreliable past 3 or 4pm.

Myos

Anonymous said...

Today's edito from France Inter claims that La République is back! Well, at least, back into the public discourse.
http://sites.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/chro/edito/