Thursday, June 9, 2011

Sarko Comeback?

OK, I know I shouldn't pay any attention to approval ratings, beauty contest polls, etc., but the arrest of DSK has shaken things up in ways that are hard to evaluate, and the latest CSA poll gives us a first indication of winners and losers. And Sarkozy seems to be a winner: his approval rating is up for the second month in a row. To be sure, 35% is still low, but it's not abyssal and at least puts some daylight between him and Marine Le Pen, who is down to a 22% "positive image" rating (down 8 from a month ago), just above Mélenchon at 21 and below DSK at 26 (down from 50 a month ago!). In other words, DSK post-Sofitelgate is now where Sarko was two months ago.

Meanwhile, Aubry is up 11 at 53 and Hollande up 9 at 52, so those two are running neck-and-neck. Of course, Nicolas Hulot topping the list tells you that this poll isn't really about politics: it's about image, perception, as the title indicates. And look at the middle of the pack: Borloo, Bayrou, Royal, and even Villepin and Chevènement--what an assortment--all enjoy positive image ratings approximately equivalent to Sarko's approval rating, if these two different rating scales are comparable (I doubt they are in any simple way, and I haven't the patience to try to figure out some statistical relationship).


MYOS said...

0n the ground I sure don't hear more pro-Sarko statements. Even today he managed to anger farmers in my area - most of whom used to vote for the UMP but which were severely disappointed he didn't bring anything "concrete" to the table. I heard from three different guys that the "broyage de paille" issue had N0T been solved unlike what the president had said "does he think we're asses/donkeys?" They were also unhappy because loan repayment deferral was first announced, then, 30mn later, shrunk to so few cases that it wouldn't help any of them. And finally they were disgruntled because only 3 of them got to talk.
0livier Mazerole, who usually thinks Royal is dead in the water, changed his tune after today's "duel" and it was astounding to hear him speak thus. To me, it shows Sarkozy was off the mark today.
(If you want to see what he's talking about, there are a bunch of videos from F2 and TF1 and I'm sure Charente Libre will have a complete report tomorrow. The presidential visit was a very big deal here, since one of the towns has a population of 31 , and the "larger" one, 3,000.)

About polls: I heard some pollsters were wondering whether they should still include DSK in their lists... That CSA poll can't measure "voting intentions" and approval ratings for people not in power are as deep as Facebook "friendship".

Cincinna said...

  What is key to watch in polls are trends. 
  The trending so far for Sarko looks encouraging for him to make a comeback. For MLP, not so much. I don't think the Socialists can recover from L'affaire DSK which will be dragging on all through Summer and Fall. The moment when the PS decided to close ranks and defend DSK, IMO they were doomed. 
 They are now left without a candidate, leaving people to choose among old faces, retreads & reruns. Nothing new or dynamic. 
  Modern Political polling is scientific, sophisticated and often accurate.   So polls do have their place in giving us an idea of what is on the minds of prospective voters.
 Political polling is not reading tea leaves, but adds weighting and other factors to sampling for accuracy. 
  But polls this far out from an election are just a snapshot in time. A lot can change in almost a year. 
  I'm not sure whether French polling is conducted in similar ways to American polling as to phone sampling, automated sampling, sampling registered voters, likely voters, etc. Some American pollsters like Scott Rassmussen
have an incredible track record for predicting winners.

  He does a daily Presidential tracking poll that has been an excellent 
predictor of past winners in Presidential & congressional elections.

 NB: Internet polls have absolutely no value as they can be manipulated, and are totally unscientific. 
Voter intention can be measured in polls. Look to the internals of the poll. There are questions asked that weed out voters with high likelihood of voting from people just spouting off who never actually go to the polls and vote.

bernard said...

Positive image is about presence in the media. That is all.

MYOS said...

Cincinna: Unfortunately, not so in France. They also don't do random sampling.
I recall one poll where actual number were checked and it turned out there were only 148 people for a particular question that had "incredible" results... Well, yeah, it wasn't scientific or representative at all...
They do internet surveys all the time too. The poll results that trumpeted that MLP would be #2 in the elections turned out to be an internet poll.

I agree with bernard re: positive image= presence in the media. It doesn't translate into voting intentions. Many people really like HUlot but wouldn't vote for him in an election.r