Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Socialist Primary: A Fictional Take

François Marty imagines a Socialist primary in which Hollande wins the first round handily but is, improbably, defeated in the second round. Despite strong suspicions of foul play, Hollande is forced to concede for the sake of the party, in order to avoid certain defeat in the presidential election. He does so with a certain grace, like Al Gore conceding to George W. Bush in 2000. And we know where grace got us that time.



FrédéricLN said...

In a second turn Aubry-Hollande, most supporters of Montebourg and Royal should prefer Aubry, if they come back to vote in the second round. Aubry remains my favourite (as a bettor) for this primary election.

Anonymous said...

Frédéric, since I was surprised by the "Royal surge" in la Rochelle, I interviewed a bunch of pro-Royal supporters.
I didn't find a single one who'd support Aubry - the "congrès de reims" is still very much on their minds. Essentially, they'd rather vote for a philanderer (private flaw) than for someone who subverted an election.
As for Montebourg, with whom I directly talked, there is no way (based on what he said, and the words were very strong) that he'd support Aubry. He's incensed that he gave her the Guérini report and she sent it back to him 'certified with returned receipt' (he sounded especially galled by it for some reason) with the note stating she didn't want to read it. He's actually gaining supporters due to that anti-corruption stance (witness the laughter and support when he said "we should fight corruption and not just in les bouches du rhone", something Martine Aubry scowled at openly on camera!) and none of these supporters seem enclined to "forgive" the Guérini reciprocal support, even if she went to Marseilles to let him know he had to lay low (as well as taunt Guéant) and even though it's likely he'll be suspended in September - in that group, it's "too little, too late".
So, essentially, based on the people I talked to, Royal and Montebourg supporters would prefer Hollande by default.

Regarding the fiction...
A cheating scandal would kill the candidate: after the reims scandal (which even Barbier admitted to yesterday night on iTélé, in very raw terms - and he was one of the last journalists not to acknowledge there'd been Dalay-style action there) the PS would be done for if they attempted to skew the results. Based on what Simiot said it'll be highly monitored.

Anonymous said...

* Typo, sorry: DalEy, of course!
(look it up if you don't know the man... he's the American Guérini :p)

Anonymous said...


Would the PS really cheat for something that important?