Wednesday, January 11, 2012

BVA Poll

The latest BVA poll has some surprises. Bayrou is up to 11%. Hollande's advantage over Sarkozy in round 1 has shrunk to 28-24. Villepin is taking 4% from Sarkozy, while Mélenchon is taking 8% from Hollande. Marine Le Pen stands at 17%--a considerable number but well short of vindicating the more alarmist readings of her strength (including, I confess, mine). Has she really attracted new adherents to the PS, or has she merely reconstructed the hard core of FN support that Sarkozy decimated in 2007? And has her repositioning of the FN really mattered, or is the party's resurgence simply a matter of disappointment with Sarkozy?

Once again, the Bayrou factor could be significant. And again, the question is, Is this a vote of adherence, or a "ni-ni" option?

And one non-factor: the NPA seems to have disappeared with Philippe Poutou as its candidate. Olivier Besancenot had put the party on the map, but Mélenchon's dynamism, combined with Poutou's media-shyness, seems to have erased it as an electoral force.


brent said...

Thanks for a load of quite interesting information, but I have to question whether Mélenchon's 8% are "taken from" Hollande: if Hollande returns to the left (as he seems disinclined to do) he may regain most of those 8% in the second round, if not the first; otherwise I suspect many will land on the 'abstention' pile, lost not to Mélenchon but to the PS's sharp right turn.

Passerby said...

I don't think NPA was ever on the map. Olivier Besancenot was.
In my opinion it is simply a 3 letters acronym attached to the name of popular leader. Take-away the popular leader and the letters disappear.

Replace Olivier Besancenot/NPA with Arlette Laguiller/LCR, and you'll see that history repeats itself on the extreme left.
(Which is ironic for people aiming at the end of History...)