Friday, February 3, 2012

Bayrou Voters in Round 2

According to a recent poll, most Bayrou voters will go to Hollande in the second round rather than to Sarkozy--assuming that Sarkozy makes it to the second round!

Selon ce sondage, 46 % des électeurs de M. Bayrou se reporteraient au second tour sur M. Hollande, contre seulement 32 % sur M. Sarkozy.
Perhaps even more interesting, 31% of Le Pen voters will go to Hollande versus only 35 to Sarkozy! Of course this can be read 2 ways: Le Pen has made major inroads into the pool of voters who normally vote for the left, or Sarkozy has lost his appeal to the xenophobic right. Probably both are true.

1 comment:

FrédéricLN said...

Both are true, and the Le Pen vote is not intrisically xenophobic. Rather conservative / petit-bourgeois, or "moral majority", as I probably wrote before. People who feel cheated by "big policies" which would have sold the countries to external players — simultaneously the oil extracting countries, China and the Arab/Black family round the corner.

OK, I can hear you, this IS xenophobia, ie fear of foreigners.

But I insist, the betrayal feeling is the real driver, much more than any agressivity against foreigners, or people of foreign origin.

From my experience at Argenteuil : in 2009, an old man, Ali Ziri, has been arrested by the police for driving drunk, just before my baker's store. He died in the following hours. Weeks ago, the Argenteuil Mayor allowed the support committee for the truth on Ali Ziri's case to set a commemorative "plaque" before the baker's store. The plaque mentioned Mr Ziri died "à la suite de" his arrest. The police Unions obtained some days ago that the plaque be withdrawn. Well, here is my point: during these weeks, nothing had been done by anyone against the plaque : no tag, no hurt, even the flowers, I think, had not been thrown away…

What is the connexion between conservative and Hollande? Well, I think the Hollande vote is by essence a conservative one, in our Republican country, which built its (present) social and (former) economic organization during the idealistic post-war years.

People don't believe Hollande will be able to carry out a progressive policy in any serious way, but they think he will try to save as much as possible of it from the (present or feared) wreck.