Saturday, March 24, 2012

The Second Round Is the One that Counts

Nicolas Sarkozy has made headway with FN voters with his sharp right turn, thus cutting into Marine Le Pen's first-round vote. But an IFOP poll shows that la droitisation of the UMP candidate is not working with FN voters drawn primarily to MLP's rhetoric concerning purchasing power and wages. Many of these voters will not vote for Sarkozy in the second round:

Alors que 51 % des électeurs frontistes de PACA se reporteraient sur Nicolas Sarkozy et qu’il bénéficierait également de reports de l’ordre de 42 % en Ile-de-France et en Languedoc-Roussillon et Midi-Pyrénées, les reports ne seraient inférieurs à un tiers dans les régions ouvrières du Nord-Pas-de-Calais, de Champagne-Ardenne / Picardie ainsi que dans le Grand Ouest.
Caveat: this polling was done before the events in Montauban and Toulouse.


Cincinna said...

 That is one huge caveat!
 The second round is, of course, what determines the final victor, but how candidates fare in the first round can have a huge impact in the second.
  Given the psychological lift, the huge energy that comes with a victory, and what we Americans call the big MO, it is almost impossible for the loser in the first round to go on and win the second.
 Same is true in states in US with "jungle" (multi round) primaries and elections, like Louisiana. 
  Sarkozy began to overtake Hollande before the terrorist killings in Toulouse and Montauban, and his rise in the polls has continued. 
  In polling, the important thing to watch is trending.
  It seems Sarko is gaining, and Hollande is losing. Interestingly, MLP is also on the down trend, and Melanchon is showing growing strength. IMO because he us the non-Hollande. 
  I am astonished that the PS would pick the worst and least experienced of their lineup. And his lack if experience and political tone deafness is really showing and taking its toll. 
 I'm not in the prediction or betting business, but there is a chance that Melanchon will come in second, or a very close third. 
 It is always very difficult to unseat a sitting president. 
  The latest poll results at l'Expression Publique, the polling site of Le Monde must be giving the PS pause.

 In their arrogance, they expected a coronation, not a real contest, and are not prepared.
  This should have been an easy win for the left, but the one thing at which they have always excelled is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
 But, as one of my Yankee heroes Yogi Berra said, "it ain't over 'til it's over".
  Pass the popcorn!

Anonymous said...

@ Cincinna

The poll you are linking to shows that more people approve of Hollande's reaction than of Sarkozy's. So what's your point?

As to it being difficult to unseat a seating president this is no evidence of this under the Fifth republic. Mitterand was reelected, but Giscard was not, and Chirac benefited from extraordinary circumstances with Le Pen qualifying for the second round.


Anonymous said...

"it is almost impossible for the loser in the first round to go on"
It seems that this is not the case in France: Mitterrand won in 1981 without winning the first round, same thing in 1995, and 2002 doesn't count, so that leaves 1988 and 2007 v. 1981 and 1995, to me far from "almost impossible"; I'd say 50/50.
As for Sarko "gaining", I'm not so sure; Hollande is losing ground to Mélenchon but Sarko seems to be losing to Le Pen, too.
And regarding the tragedy and murders in Toulouse, we still don't know how it'll play out for people. Apparently Arno Karlsfeld has been going around saying alqaida was even more vicious than the nazis since nazis didn't shoot children, something easy to rebutt.. not to mention I still don't see the guy as an AlQaida operative, to me he looks like a regular psychopath with fundamentalist screeds that didn't go so far as to prevent him to getting drunk in nightclubs.

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