Sunday, April 22, 2012

First Round Results

FH 28.4 NS 25.5 MLP 20 JLM 11

The big turnout seems to have favored Le Pen above all, and the Right is now in a stronger position than one might have thought. Hollande's lead is unprecedented for a challenger to a sitting president, but Mélenchon is weaker than thought, and that will hurt Hollande in Round 2.


Guilhem said...

I see those results as a failure of Mélenchon: the extreme left charismatic leaders (laguillier, besancenot) were absent, and so was the "risk of 22nd april" trauma, and still he does not manage to gather much above the usual scores of the extreme left.

The extreme left is back at its 1995-2002 results (around 15%) with just a redistribution of the votes between parties, which I would attribute almost as much to the absence of Laguillier and Besancenot as to the talent of Mélenchon.

On the right, the success of MLP is chilling, and I guess is the payback of the lepenisation of Sarkozy's 2007 (and 2012's, for that matters) campaign.

The 2nd turn, as you say, might indeed be much closer that announced in the polls.

Gregory Brown said...

Note that IFOP projection is for a slightly wider final margin, with Hollande at 29 and Sarkozy at 24.

Gregory Brown said...

Then again, actual results with 34% of ballots counted, are closer -- Hollande 27, Sarko 26. Presumably this over-represents the less urban areas, where polls closed at 18h.

Anonymous said...

Guéant just announced the official results:
Hollande 27
Sarkozy 26.7