Friday, April 20, 2012

Le vent en poupe?

The final IPSOS poll before the blackout shows Hollande opening up a substantial gap of 3.5 points over Sarkozy in the first round. In the close second-tier contest between Le Pen and Mélenchon, Le Pen is now placed ahead, 16 to 14. Are these shifts real? Who knows? Sunday will tell the tale, and I can stop this mindless horse race reporting, which somebody with a Ph. D. in mathematics ought to know could well be statistical noise. Still, it's only human to speculate, and in these final days of the campaign, perhaps the polls are picking up early signs of a bandwagon effect: Hollande looks like a winner, so some who were going to give their protest vote to Mélenchon may be choosing to go for the gold.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I just read this and "tout s'explique" - it's about a "qualitative" poll, 6,000 respondents. It's from March but apparently things have not improved since.
"On résume : Sarkozy est donc un mec qui s’agite beaucoup, et est convaincu de la justesse de ses idées. Mais il fait peur, n’est pas sympathique, pas sincère (donc menteur), ne comprend pas vos problèmes et est malhonnête. Menteur, malhonnête, et se fout de vous en conséquence.

Tout ça pour une grande partie d’un échantillon de 6000 électeurs"

Sure, the blogger is an unabashed Hollande supporter so the presentation is biased against Sarkozy.... but these numbers are real and I don't see how Sarkozy can win with these.