Monday, April 9, 2012

Marine Le Pen Leading among Voters 18-24

François Hollande might well be asking what happened to young people in France. A few short months ago, he was claiming 39% of the youth vote (18-24). Now he's down to 25, behind Marine Le Pen at 26 (she has gained 13 of the 14 points he lost). This is a very puzzling reversal--and a very troubling sign for the future..


Anonymous said...

I actually like his campaign video. It's better than what you usually see (solid background, candidate speaking, words appearing underneath).

I think young people like to be vowed and moved. Also, I'd wager it really depends on the "youth"'s origin, which the pollsters can't ask. If in the first poll they had many 3rd generation French youth, and in the second poll, very few of them, it'd alter the results - but ethnicity is not a factor when they create their "quotas" so in all likelihood the categories are diploma/degree related, along with size of town and geographic location.

frisbest said...

Is the explanation for the major proportion of the change more likely to be a transfer from the PS to the FG (-14%; +11%).